The tariff-and-sanction offensive launched by U.S. President Donald Trump against India has provoked a wave of negative reactions within the country’s strategic expert community. An analysis of publications from leading think tanks affiliated with the National Security Council and the Ministry of External Affairs of India indicates the emergence of a diplomatic window of opportunity for Belarus in its relations with India. This view was expressed by Yuri Yarmolinsky, analyst at the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Research (BISR), head of the Center for SCO and BRICS Studies.
"The general tone of expert commentary is that the country projects confidence, diplomatic resilience, and strategic autonomy. The prevailing attitude is a refusal to be bent by tariffs and a readiness to provide a systemic response. The U.S. démarche is framed as disrespect for sovereignty and a rising power status. Commentators emphasize that Trump acts as an imperial leader, fueling radicalism and global chaos, challenging multilateralism, and undermining the long-term strategy of rapprochement between New Delhi and Washington—ultimately eroding trust in America," Yarmolinsky said.
Indian experts describe this as humiliation through economic pressure aimed at strategic subordination. "The tariff threats have touched upon historical memory and national pride. Comparisons with the sanctions following the nuclear tests of 1998 highlight that India neither forgets external pressure nor forgives—even allies—for attempts to impose their will, though it continues to cooperate. On the other hand, this crisis is seen as a chance for an industrial breakthrough and a new global positioning based on multi-level strategic adaptation," the analyst noted.
From Defense to Offensive: Strategic Reorientation
India decisively rejects the role of a victim of trade pressure and is moving towards a proactive trade doctrine, transforming the crisis into a strategic opportunity. Its response to American tariff blackmail is the DART initiative (Diversification and Resilience in Trade), which calls for export diversification, the creation of analytical mechanisms, and the search for new markets, Yarmolinsky explained.
Strengthening Economic Sovereignty
"Tariffs have become a catalyst for the Atmanirbhar Bharat ("Self-Reliant India") program—a course toward self-sufficiency in line with the principles of “Make in India for the World” and “Local for Global.” This approach is based on investments in industries such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, defense, and semiconductors. There is also an emphasis on the need to build a “trade shield”—institutional protection against external pressure," the analyst stressed.
Revising Foreign Policy Priorities
"Participation in QUAD (Australia, India, the U.S., Japan) and other U.S.-centric alliances is subject to reassessment—from military coordination to economic synergy—as American policy calls their reliability into question. Simultaneously, India is strengthening multi-vector diplomacy, including negotiations with the EU, the UK, ASEAN, and the Global South, which is viewed as an alternative market and political partner," Yuri Yarmolinsky said.
Balancing between Geopolitics and Geo-economics
"India refuses to submit to U.S. pressure, especially regarding relations with Russia and China. It seeks to separate strategic and economic interests to avoid geopolitical dependencies. Balancing between economic giants, the country intends to build a “third axis”—a trade strategy based on its own interests. At the same time, Russia remains a strategic partner, despite external pressure," the analyst noted.
Institutional Reform of Trade Policy
"Plans are underway to establish the Sovereign Trade Brain, a think tank—a form of export intelligence—to forecast trade risks and develop counterstrategies, including through stronger coordination among the Ministries of Commerce, Industry, and External Affairs. Essentially, this amounts to forming a unified export diplomacy guided by a single vision. The entire architecture of foreign trade will be revised, and the Swadeshi concept (support for local goods and services, reliance on domestic strengths) will be relaunched as a global trade strategy independent of external alliances," the expert explained.
Thus, under conditions of tariff pressure and geopolitical turbulence, India demonstrates a high degree of pragmatism, aiming for diversification and the construction of a comprehensive long-term strategy. "It does not “mirror” sanctions but searches for new formats. Although Indian experts underscore the country’s disinclination toward emotional reactions—particularly in international affairs—the often-repeated notion of strategic autonomy means that even as India maintains dialogue and strengthens internal resilience, it does not forget old grievances. Tariffs, sanctions, and unilateral U.S. actions provoke distrust and caution, while India’s pursuit of stable and predictable partnerships enhances the attractiveness of such blocs as the SCO, BRICS, and ASEAN,” Yuri Yarmolinsky emphasized.
"At the same time, despite structural problems (tariffs, visa restrictions, digital policy), the U.S. remains one of India’s largest trade partners, particularly in technology, pharmaceuticals, and defense. New Delhi remains interested in access to American goods and investment markets, which makes wounded pride a secondary factor compared to profit and rational calculation. Moreover, reducing dependence on America is a long-term process that requires a fundamental overhaul of logistics, financial mechanisms, and diplomatic alliances. Therefore, India will continue strategic engagement with the U.S., while expanding trade with the SCO, BRICS, ASEAN, and Africa will not come at the expense of relations with Washington but rather within the framework of a classical balancing strategy," the analyst clarified.
At the same time, resentment and distrust toward the U.S. will persist among Indian elites, particularly in expert discourse, as a hidden factor shaping New Delhi’s strategic decisions in the long term, the expert is convinced. "And this will not be an emotional revenge, but a cold historical memory of a future world power striving for equality and refusing pressure and subordination," he concluded.
"This is precisely the case where it is appropriate to reiterate that the “moment of truth” India experienced amid the U.S. tariff-and-sanction maneuver opens a window of opportunity for Belarusian diplomacy in the context of the long-overdue reset of Belarusian-Indian relations. A solid basis for this is provided by the upcoming SCO summit in Tianjin, China. Optimism is further reinforced by the news of the visit of Indian Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ashok Kumar to the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where discussions included the next round of inter-ministerial consultations, as well as the meeting of the Belarus-India Intergovernmental Commission on Economic, Trade, Industrial, Scientific, Technological, and Cultural Cooperation, which has been postponed for nearly three years," Yuri Yarmolinsky added.