In the foreseeable future, the consequences of current changes will affect several areas at once.
Fewer young people and more elderly. Many countries around the world are facing this demographic shift today. Belarus is no exception to this trend.
We do not yet strongly feel the ongoing changes. But what will happen in 10–20 years, when their consequences become much more noticeable? Which areas will be affected the most, and what will we have to adapt to?
Tochka.by discussed this with BISR analyst Maryna Andriyashka.
What awaits us
As the expert notes, it is impossible to quickly change the demographic situation. Any measures here have a delayed effect.
“We must understand that measures aimed at increasing birth rates now will only bring new people into the labor market in 18–20 years. Over the next ten years, the consequences of the already formed age structure of society will manifest themselves much faster,” she explains.
This means that the identified trend will persist: there will be fewer children and young people among the population, and more elderly people.
This situation will also determine the main directions of demographic policy for the next few years.
These include support for birth rates, more flexible working conditions, managed migration, and adaptation of the economy and social services to an aging population.
Where changes will be felt more strongly
According to the interlocutor, the consequences of demographic changes will manifest in four areas: the labor market, healthcare, the social sphere, and education.
Thus, competition among employers for staff will intensify in the labor market. Employee experience and qualifications will be valued higher, and businesses will have to focus more actively on automation.
In healthcare, demand will grow for the treatment of chronic diseases, rehabilitation, geriatrics, and home care.
“Against the backdrop of the continuing trend of increased life expectancy, there will be more elderly patients. Therefore, the role and importance of telemedicine and digital medical services will increase,” notes Maryna Andriyashka.
Changes will also affect the social sphere. The burden on families, who will more often have to care for elderly relatives, will increase. There will also be a greater need for social workers and home care.
Changes may also affect the familiar pension model. As the expert believes, alternative pension provision mechanisms will become more in demand over time.
The analyst notes that children born in 2026 will enter the labor market only by 2047, by which time the pension system itself will likely have changed. Instead of a solidarity-based system, it may become exclusively funded or corporate.
As for education, the consequences here will appear with a delay. First, the decrease in the number of children will affect schools: classes will become smaller, and the network of institutions will have to be adjusted to the new number of students.
Later, changes will reach colleges and universities, which will have to compete more fiercely for applicants.
Is it possible to mitigate the consequences?
According to the expert, there are opportunities for this, as the demographic paradigm is adaptable.
Firstly, inventions, robotization, automation, artificial intelligence technologies, targeted use of resources from managed labor migration in areas of interest to the state, and digitalization of public services are practical tools tested on the external circuit with a good efficiency ratio.
Secondly, the value of health as an asset is increasing, healthy lifestyle practices are expanding, there is a fashion for mobile health apps and medical check-ups, meaning a culture of healthy living is taking shape.
As the analyst believes, new solutions will eventually appear in other areas as well, which collectively will adapt society to demographic dynamics.
