Systemic crises, or demand crises, as in other cyclical crises, encounter such phenomena when all assets and markets fall at the same time. That is, there is a general fall and a period of decline, then comes a gradual activity revitalization activity and an ascending trend. But at this stage, things are somewhat different: some markets are falling, while others are continuing to grow and feel good.
According to Vitaly Demirov, analyst at the Belarusian Center of Strategic Research, the IMF forecast for the fall of economies is disappointing: it predicts the significant contraction in the world economy since the Great Depression. Strangely enough, the main share in this decline is constituted by the most developed countries. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. economy is demonstrating a record decline in the second quarter – almost 33% in terms of annual rates. The future of the Eurasian region countries looks more optimistic. In particular, in the first four months of 2020, Belarus' GDP decreased only by 1.3%, and a number of industries, due to quarantine, absence, even showed positive momentum (agriculture +5.2%, construction +6.3% and retail trade +4.7%). Russia's GDP also showed moderate decline over the same period, and, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, will make -1.9% in annual terms. It is clear that cumulative result of the assessment will be deteriorating. Accordingly, the IMF provides more reassuring forecasts than for Western countries: Russia expects a 5.5% drop in GDP, Belarus – 6 %.