Having concluded a coalition agreement on November 10, the Polish opposition seized the initiative in forming a future government from the ruling Law and Justice party. Certain details surfaced related to its composition. What to expect next and what is the reason for the predicted aggravation of the political situation in Poland?
The composition of the Polish government is a subject for discussion in recent weeks. Important moments have finally emerged. Donald Tusk will be nominated for the post of Prime Minister (without sensationalism here). A significant curtsey was made towards the Polish Peasant Party: the leader of the PSL Vladislav Kosinyak-Kamysh claims to be the Minister of Defense with the rank of deputy Prime Minister. In addition, the party is counting on three more ministerial posts, including the Minister of Agriculture (as expected, the PSL is securing the agricultural sector). The second deputy Prime Minister, the leader of the "Nowa Lewica" Krzysztof Gawkowski, will be responsible for digitalization. Candidates for the rotating post of Marshal of the Sejm are Szymon Hołownia ("Poland 2050") and Włodzimierz Czarzasty ("Nowa Lewica").
The agreement reached is called "an agreement of a very broad compromise", since representatives of 11 political parties are claiming authority as part of the coalition. It is stated that all decisions will be made on the basis of consensus. And although the opposition is trying to demonstrate unity and cohesion, in fact, there are many contradictions and inconsistencies in views within it, which will undoubtedly affect the stability of the coalition government. We are talking about the "protocol of discrepancies", which politicians have tried not to make public. In particular, the greens oppose the development of nuclear energy in Poland, believing that funds from this project should be directed to the development of renewable energy sources. The PSL, on the contrary, supports this direction. Another stumbling block is the issue of limiting meat and livestock production. There is no single approach to the revision of social policy, the liquidation of the anti-corruption service, the preservation of payments of additional pension benefits. There is no agreed opinion on the fence built on the border with Belarus yet, only the PSL unequivocally opposes its demolition.
However, the upcoming confrontation between the Law and Justice and the coalition on the migration pact proposed by the European Commission has a more serious destabilizing potential for Poland. All parties of the alliance support the pact, which, against the background of the tough position of the ruling, threatens a new round of the "Polish-Polish war".
The aggravation of the political situation in Poland is also possible due to the opposition's intention to bring to constitutional responsibility "persons responsible for an attempt to illegally change the state system, for violating the Constitution and laws and violating the rule of law," which is aimed primarily at Law and Justice and actually acts as a retaliatory blow for the establishment by the ruling parliamentary commission to investigate Russian influence.