Analyst Tomashov: Lithuania’s reaction to meteorological balloons carrying contraband is inadequate
MINSK, 10 December – RIA Novosti. Sergei Tomashov, analyst of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Research, told RIA Novosti that Lithuania’s reaction to meteorological balloons carrying contraband is inadequate and the true motives may include the desire, in pursuit of certain financial interests, to prevent a de-escalation in Eastern Europe and to damage Belarus’s international image.
In late October, the Lithuanian government announced that it would close road transport crossings on the border with Belarus for one month, until 30 November (until 01:00 Moscow time on 1 December), with the possibility of extending the measure. The Lithuanian side justified the suspension of traffic through the two remaining functioning road checkpoints on the border with Belarus by referring to “incidents” involving the penetration into Lithuanian airspace of meteorological balloons carrying contraband. However, earlier than announced, during the night of 20 November, Lithuania reopened two checkpoints on the border with Belarus. At the same time, Lithuania is calling on the European Union to tighten sanctions against Belarus due to balloons allegedly transporting contraband from Belarusian territory. On Tuesday, the Lithuanian government introduced a state of emergency throughout the country because of the meteorological balloons.
“I believe that the reaction Lithuania is demonstrating today is, of course, inadequate. It is clearly visible that the Lithuanian leadership seeks to increase the degree of escalation in relations with Belarus,” the analyst said. He noted that a technical meeting at the level of border authorities had previously taken place (to discuss the situation on the border, counteracting illegal migration and combating contraband), and, in principle, nothing indicated a continuation of escalation.
The interlocutor pointed out that the problem of contraband has been known for many years, including within Lithuania itself. “Even the latest investigations by Lithuanian journalists, which they conducted in their own country, show that this contraband activity is embedded within the internal structure of Lithuania’s state administration,” he said. Speaking about the economic impact of contraband, Tomashov stressed, in particular, that the shadow turnover of contraband cigarettes in Lithuania amounts to around 30 per cent.
“These tentacles extend into Lithuania’s political system. It is clear that, at a certain level, political actors protect the contraband schemes,” the expert noted.
He added that meteorological balloons carrying contraband had been flying for several years, “and suddenly, out of nowhere, Vilnius began to close its airport, citing the claim that the balloons pose some kind of threat to air traffic.” “There was no such threat before,” Tomashov underscored.
According to him, the conclusion suggests itself that the Lithuanian side wants to obstruct certain processes that its politicians dislike and presents the situation as if some external actor, specifically Belarus, were at fault.
Tomashov urged observers to pay attention to the context in which the escalation in Lithuania’s relations with Belarus began. “Negotiations on a peace deal (in Ukraine) have intensified. Secondly, Belarus’s negotiations with the American side are entering an active phase. Belavia has received relief from US sanctions, substantive contacts are taking place, and there was even a call from Trump to our head of state,” the interlocutor said. He also referred to the new US national security strategy, emphasising that Washington is currently interested in a degree of de-escalation in Europe. The analyst recalled that earlier there had been rising tensions in Belarus’s border regions with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, driven by illegal migration, the militarisation of Western states, restrictions on the border and the closure of checkpoints.
“It is entirely possible that Lithuania dislikes this de-escalation. It aligns its approach more closely with the European Union, with Brussels, which seeks to disrupt the peace deal (on Ukraine), to prevent its development, and to prolong the military conflict,” Tomashov said.
He added that a charged atmosphere helps Lithuania demonstrate its significance to the EU. “The states located in the east of the EU, in Eastern Europe – Poland, Lithuania and Latvia – have clung to the concept of the outpost. They seek to demonstrate that they serve as NATO’s outpost, that they bear the main burden… This allows them to demand more funding for their development, for financing the defence sector, and to justify the need for foreign military contingents on their territory, and so on,” Tomashov continued.
According to him, the escalation of tensions is yet another means of “extracting” funds from the European Union. “This is what we are seeing. Under the SAFE programme (a €150-billion fund to strengthen defence capabilities in the context of the conflict in Ukraine), announced by the European Union, Lithuania is receiving around €7 billion, Poland around €44 billion, and Latvia also receives a substantial share. Financial flows are moving, and this is a serious argument supporting this conclusion,” the analyst emphasised.
He also drew attention to another factor that makes it advantageous for Lithuania to demonise Belarus. “We must not forget that an arbitration process is underway with the Lithuanian side regarding Lithuania’s ban on the transit of our fertilisers (Belaruskali is demanding compensation through the courts for losses incurred due to the suspension of transit through Lithuania). The sum in question is significant. It is around $12 billion, which is a considerable amount for Lithuania. I would even say, a very large sum. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that such actions by the Lithuanian side are connected with its desire to present Belarus in the most unfavourable light ahead of the legal proceedings, which will take place no earlier than 2027,” the interlocutor added.