Olga Lazorkina, analyst of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Research, has offered her view on the underlying causes and possible consequences of the ongoing Russia–US negotiations on a settlement in Ukraine. In her assessment, the core positions of the parties remain difficult to reconcile, and the process itself is constrained by the need to “cut the Gordian knot” of global contradictions.
The political scientist argues that the main obstacle to progress is the territorial issue. It can be resolved either by starting from the actual situation on the ground or by attempting to preserve the status quo, which is unlikely. This is a direct collision of positions, and, in Lazorkina’s view, this is precisely what Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov stated.
“This is the stumbling block that prevents further movement. In order to reach a global level of security arrangements, the territorial issue needs to be reconsidered,” the expert noted.
The analyst emphasised that the negotiations on Ukraine represent only a small element of a far more complex tangle of global challenges. While talks continue, the United States persists in pursuing its objectives in other regions (for example, in Honduras and Venezuela).
In addition, a serious obstacle is the internal split within the European Union over support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. The sanctions regime will not be lifted overnight, even if a peace agreement on Ukraine is signed.
“We see only a single small point, which will not resolve the core set of problems, even if a peace agreement is signed,” the analyst stated.
Among these problems she included unresolved issues of arms control: the New START Treaty, intermediate- and shorter-range missiles, and missile defence systems.
The expert drew attention to the evolution of the American position since 2021, when Russia sent concrete security proposals to Washington that were ignored. Today, in her view, the administration of Donald Trump, despite strong domestic resistance, is attempting to move towards dialogue.
“One must give Trump his due. He is striving to move into a negotiating position. He understands how difficult this is,” Olga Lazorkina observed.
However, this peace-oriented rhetoric is linked not so much to a personal evolution of Trump — who at one time also increased military assistance to Ukraine — but to the changing status of the United States in the world.
The analyst’s key argument is a fundamental transformation of the international environment. According to her, the world in which the United States acted as an unshakeable “pillar” has receded into the past. Today, other major powers, such as India, are increasingly acting in accordance with their own national interests and are capable of resisting American pressure.
“If the Americans have the opportunity to exert pressure, let them try. They tried, it did not work, and they had to return to the diplomatic track,” she explained.
This is forcing Washington to shift from coercive dominance to a more measured diplomatic approach.
The expert’s overall conclusion is that the negotiations on Ukraine have reached an exceptionally complex stage, where not only the positions of Russia and the West collide, but the very foundations of global security are being reconsidered.
The process will be long and painful, as it requires “cutting” rather than unravelling the entire knot of interlinked problems accumulated over decades. The declining global influence of the United States and the rise of multipolarity are compelling Washington to sit down at the negotiating table, but the outcome will not be a quick compromise; instead, it will be a prolonged reconfiguration of the entire system of international relations.