Reflecting three years ago on the choice of a name for his project and focusing on the historiographical term "The Great Game in Asia 2.0", Deputy Head of the Foreign Policy Department of the Belarusian Institute of Strategic Research (BISR) Yuri Yarmolinsky faced considerable irony about his tendency to conspiracy. Meanwhile, recent statements by Donald Lu, US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, clearly confirm that such a game has been conducted by the Anglo-Saxons in this region on a systematic basis for several years. Today, BISR analyst Yuri Yarmolinsky shares his opinion on what kind of game is unfolding in the region and why our President's calls for cohesion and consolidation in Greater Eurasia are more relevant than ever.
For reference.
The Great Game (or another name "the Tournament of Shadows" is a common term in historiography that is used to describe the geopolitical rivalry between the British and Russian Empires for dominance in Central Asia in the 19th - early 20th century.
"We are having an important struggle in South and Central Asia. This struggle is aimed at competing with China, countering disinformation from Russia and China, and preventing terrorist groups from creating threats to our security," he said. At the same time, he unequivocally voiced intentions to supplant the Russian media from the regional media space by creating own alternatives.
According to him, "the Central Asian countries are reeling from the harmful economic impact" caused by the special military operation of the Russian Federation, and from the "unbearable debt burden imposed by the non-viable loans of the PRC."
The United States assigns a certain role in its strategy to those discontented immigrants from the Central Asian republics who are now being deported from Russia. For the indoctrination of this category under the outwardly plausible guise of ensuring their employment at home, the American administration has requested $220.7 million from Congress for 2025.
By the way, the G7 also announced their intentions to invest $200 billion in the countries of the region. Earlier, the European Union promised $10 billion. In other projects, such as ERICEN, the United States has promised to invest $20-25 million in local infrastructure.
Certainly, respecting the sovereign right of choice of our friends in Central Asia, in this context it is appropriate to recall the Latin phrase Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes ("I fear the Greeks even when they bring gifts"). Moreover, in fact, a high-ranking American diplomat actually openly confirmed the US claims to a region that is not foreign to us.
At the same time, there was nothing fundamentally new in Mr. Lu's rhetoric. His theses should be analyzed in a broader strategic and historical context.
The United States has long and regularly postulated its national interests and aspirations in Central Asia, including in the format of official and conceptual documents.
Back in 1997, Zbigniew Brzezinski called the territories of Eurasia rich in resources a "great chessboard", predicting that it was for them that the geopolitical struggle would unfold in the 21st century.
The U.S. Strategy for Central Asia for 2019-2025 states that "close relations and cooperation with all five states are aimed at promoting U.S. values and providing a counterweight to the influence of neighbors in the region. Expanding opportunities for American businesses will help to maintain employment and develop manufacturing in the United States."
Thus, the analysis of these and many other documents provides grounds for the conclusion that, apart from creating hotbeds of tension along the perimeter of the borders of the Russian Federation and China, Washington's national interest in the region is to gain access to natural resources, in particular rare earth metals.
According to media reports, just a few days ago, an agreement was signed on creating Сove Kaz Capital Group LLC joint venture for geological exploration. In March, the South Korean company received permission from the Kazakh authorities to search and exploit lithium deposits.
The Republic of Korea is interested in mining in Kyrgyzstan. It has become known recently about the interest of the Rothschild financial house in the uranium deposits in Issyk-Kul. There are also reserves of thorium, zirconium, titanium, phosphorus and feldspar, which are estimated at about $300 billion.
Uzbekistan is developing EU-oriented projects for the extraction of rare earth metals worth $500 million. In April, Tashkent and Brussels signed a memorandum of understanding on the development of sustainable value chains in the field of critical raw materials. And this is far from an incomplete list.
Since Russia and China are the two largest players in Central Asia, we can expect even greater activation of American soft and discursive power there, an increase in the presence of Western business, the intensity of trips by various emissaries, as well as an increase in assistance from various financial donors to the local non-governmental sector and the so-called independent media, which traditionally are a battering ram during the implementation destructive scenarios.
At the same time, it cannot be excluded that, apart from soft power tools, beneficiaries will rely on more radical, including terrorist methods. The recently prevented coup attempt in Kyrgyzstan, in which experts saw analogies with the January 2022 events in Kazakhstan, is a clear confirmation of this. This also includes the July protests in Uzbek Karakalpakstan in the same year.
Admittedly, Western pressure on Central Asian capitals, mixed with flirtations, has a certain effect. For example, in the second quarter, fearing secondary sanctions, banks in these countries noticeably tightened compliance with companies with Russian capital. Moreover, problems arise even with payments in national currencies, which increases transaction costs.
The other side of the coin is the increase by the regional "five" of their military budgets and the purchase of modern types of weapons, which is confirmed by data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. At the heart of this trend, apart from the growing rivalry of external forces for influence in the region, experts call global instability, special military operation in Ukraine, the risks of possible border conflicts, as well as the simmering conflict in the South Caucasus.
According to one hypothesis, the arms race in Central Asia increases the risks of possible destabilization. And the multidimensional processes being the case there now are nothing more than a search for vulnerability points through which the situation could be rocked quickly.
It is obvious that as the resources of its anti-Russian proxies in Eastern Europe are depleted, the West needs a second front. Bordering Russia, China, Iran and Afghanistan, Central Asia (according to Brzezinski – the "Eurasian Balkans") ideally fits this task. Moreover, it is considered the geopolitical "core" of the SCO, and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are also members of the CSTO with all mutual obligations arising from Article 4 of the Collective Security Treaty.
All these calculations raise the perception of the calls of the Head of our State for greater unity, cohesion and consolidation in Greater Eurasia to the most serious level. The current international situation makes these values fundamental and system-forming factors for ensuring peace, stability, security and prosperity in this space.
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