An analysis of media and expert assessments of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's European tour to Poland and Ukraine (previously to Italy, Russia and Austria) allows us to draw certain conclusions, as well as highlight a number of notable trends. This subject is being discussed quite actively among analysts in different countries today.
Many Indian experts agree that the visits emphasize India's strategic autonomy and its desire to balance relations with the Russian Federation, the West and the Global South, while simultaneously supporting Ukraine's sovereignty and promoting peace initiatives. This highlights the fact that the tour took place after Narendra Modi's July meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, which provoked a sharp reaction in Kiev and a number of Western capitals.
The United States predictably saw Modi's visit to Kiev as an element of the intensifying confrontation between India and China, which at the end of May, together with Brazil, presented its peace plan, which was ambiguously perceived by Ukrainian lobbyists. Now the Indian leader - especially after not so strong re-election - needs success on the external circuit. In addition, India is important to the United States in the framework of trade wars with China. It is there that American production is being relocated. That is why sanctions are not being introduced against India: neither for trade with Russia, nor for cooperation with Iran.
Now the main intrigue and expectation from the visits is whether India will offer its plan for a peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian conflict, because on the eve of his departure to Europe, Modi stated that he intends to share his views on the prospects for its resolution, and also expressed hope "for the speedy restoration of peace and stability in the region."
India's proximity to the G7, Russia and the Global South makes New Delhi, in theory, an ideal mediator. Modi's peace plan would also meet Russia's interests. For example, paragraph 74 of the joint statement of India and Russia following Modi's July visit to Moscow states that both countries "stressed the need for a peaceful settlement of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy and welcomed mediation efforts in accordance with international law and on the basis of the UN Charter." Modi's recently proposed Global Development Compact can be logically complemented by a "peace plan": resolute propaganda against wars in which rich countries participate and the poor suffer. It is suggested that India could also offer Ukraine assistance in post-war reconstruction.
He also noted that the opportunities for effective negotiations under the auspices of New Delhi are objectively limited, since Moscow and Kiev have different views on their key fundamental conditions.
So far, Modi has limited himself to calling on the parties to the conflict to find a way to a settlement together in the spirit of Mahatma Gandhi's eternal message of peace, to move on to dialogue, declaring his readiness to personally play any role to achieve peace. Zelensky, in turn, proposed India among other countries of the Global South to host the second peace summit, as well as to form a strategic alliance in areas such as cyberspace and the aerospace industry. The signed agreements following the negotiations give an idea of the priorities of cooperation: agriculture, food industry, medicine, culture and humanitarian assistance.
In addition to reaffirming its policy of non-alignment and strategic autonomy New Delhi also pursues larger goals during these visits.
For India, a proactive peace agenda is not just a moral position - it serves the goals of real policy: creating a broad diplomatic space for multi-vector global interaction, strengthening its reputation as a responsible world power, reducing risks to its own economic interests and strengthening leadership in the Global South. India has set itself the goal of becoming a developed world power by the 100th anniversary of independence (in 2047). As known, a leader is characterized by deeds and their scale. It is also important for Indian diplomacy not to remain in the heap of numerous problems of South Asia, but to have a global vision and be able to protect its broader interests. Over the past decade, India has intensified its engagement with Europe, especially with the underserved regions of Central and Eastern Europe. One of the goals is to diversify relations with the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany and France through expanding cooperation with other countries. Analysts say these shifts indicate India's growing understanding that Central European countries will play a more important role in geopolitics, and strong relations with them will benefit New Delhi. The Indian government recently resumed negotiations on a trade and investment deal with the EU. A trade and investment agreement has been signed with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) being an intergovernmental organization of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.
As for Modi's visit specifically to Poland, it is obviously perceived in the strategic community of India as the support and logistics center of the Western military operation in Ukraine, the leading country on the eastern flank of NATO with ambitions for one of the key roles in building a new European security architecture after the end of its military operation in Ukraine. Experts note India's desire to play a more active role in these issues. Warsaw and New Delhi have every chance to strengthen bilateral relations and establish a strategic partnership. Modi's visit is a step in this direction. In 2021, the volume of bilateral trade reached $4.3 billion, adding 57% year-on-year. At the same time, Polish diplomacy would not mind trying to get India to the side of the West. In particular, it is noted that "with the help of the Western world, India will achieve the status of a leader that China would like to become in the second half of this century. Not only in the Indo-Pacific region, but around the world as well. However, this will be a different type of leadership than the one China would like to take on: leadership not of aggressive expansion, but of collective leadership, known in the world of liberal democracy and free market. Noteworthy is that expert diplomacy plays a significant role in activating the Polish-Indian high-level political dialogue. Our observations indicate that since 2019, the leading Polish analytical centers - the Polish Institute of International Affairs and the Center for Oriental Studies (OSW) - have noticeably intensified contacts with expert structures affiliated with the Ministry of External Affairs and the Ministry of Defense of India.
Thus, India's increased interest in the regions of Central and Eastern Europe, peacemaking ambitions, as well as a tendency to solve problems through dialogue and diplomacy create fundamental prerequisites for resetting Belarusian-Indian relations and their subsequent scaling given the similarity of the "humanocentric" approaches of Minsk and New Delhi. The fact that on the same day (August 23), the national leaders of the two countries spoke in unison about peace in Ukraine while in Minsk and Kiev, respectively, clearly confirms the validity of such an optimistic expert forecast. Apparently, these processes have already been launched, as can be evidenced, for example, by Modi's invitation to the head of our state to participate in the 3rd Voice of the Global South Summit.