In July, Belarus became the tenth member of the SCO (along with India, Iran, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan), having methodically and responsibly completed almost 15 years of accession. In 2023, the member states accounted for 70.4% of the total trade turnover of Belarus, and by the end of January - April 2024 - 71.4%. The SCO countries account for about 40% of the world's population and about a third of the world's economic potential. The organization demonstrates high growth rates - from 4% to 9% of GDP, foreign trade turnover exceeds $8 trillion, which is equivalent to a quarter of all world trade.
It is noteworthy that Belarus has become the first purely European member country of the organization. Now, the SCO borders directly on NATO and the EU, which significantly changes the geopolitical situation in our region and the area of responsibility of the organization as a whole. Geopolitical background
Geopolitical background
Accession to the SCO is a consequence of the adaptation of Belarus' foreign policy priorities and foreign economic interests to the current geopolitical realities.
Given the increasing sanctions pressure, the issue of creating new models of regional economic cooperation is very urgent for us. This step accurately reflects the internal public demand and expectations. Following the results of recent opinion polls, more than 65% of respondents consider cooperation with the SCO to be the most in line with the long-term interests of Belarus.
Obviously, the world will not return to its former "normality". The point of no return has been passed.
Amid such trends, it is logical and natural that Belarus, with the support of Russia as a strategic ally and partner, makes its consistent civilizational choice in favor of a progressive world majority with an ambitious growing Global South and East, the vanguard of which are the SCO and BRICS.
In December 2023, following a joint meeting of the boards of the Belarusian and Russian Foreign Ministries, a Program of coordinated actions in the field of foreign policy within the framework of the Union State for 2024-2026 was signed in Moscow. The SCO and BRICS are our asymmetric reflection on the illegitimate sanctions pressure of the West. The proposal of Moscow and Beijing on the "double counteraction to double deterrence" formula, the essence of which is to create secure mechanisms for financial settlements and trade and economic ties in the SCO and BRICS, is very useful here.
We believe that the SCO will also be in demand for the Union State of Belarus and Russia, as well as the EAEU, experience of countering Western sanctions. In turn, the unified military-political space, recorded in the Military Doctrine of our supranational entity, reinforced by the provision of article 4 of the Collective Security Treaty, is a firm safeguard against possible force majeure and incidents on the western borders of the organization. Taking into account the geography and existing potential, Belarus, especially together with fraternal Russia, is capable and will be able to qualitatively strengthen the SCO.
Belarus and the SCO
We do not just offer our capabilities, but also specific appealing projects, initiatives and ideas. Minsk initially acted and continues to act as a proactive donor.
The capacity and solvency of the markets of the member countries makes the SCO a promising space in terms of solving the issue of diversification and outstripping export growth in the face of illegitimate sanctions. In this regard, we welcome China's intention to expand member countries' access to its large-scale market and bring trade turnover with member states to $3 trillion.
Yes, the economic track is still lagging behind the dynamics in the security sector due to the lack of financial support mechanisms for projects. But almost 70% of the citizens surveyed by our sociologists see an opportunity to increase sales of their products in the SCO in conditions of closing Western markets. The SCO is home to about half of the world’s population, the capacity of its markets is huge (more than $3.8 trillion in total), which opens up new opportunities for mutual trade.
The SCO and BRICS are our asymmetric reflection on the illegitimate sanctions pressure of the West.
The recently adopted documents are designed to give impetus to mutual trade within the SCO and generally revive the economic track. In particular, the Action Plan to implement the Economic Development Strategy for the period until 2030, decisions on the Investors Association and financial support mechanisms for project activities, a Roadmap to increase the share of settlements in national currencies, a joint Action Plan for the intraregional trade development, as well as a new edition of the Program of multilateral trade and Economic Cooperation until 2035.
The Belarusian Institute of Strategic Research (BISR), as a leading state research center founded by the President of the Republic of Belarus, acts in unison with the current international agenda of the country. With the support of colleagues from the National Research University Higher School of Economics, in May we participated for the first time in the BRICS Academic Forum in Moscow. Cooperation is underway with partners from the Center for East Asian and SCO Studies of MGIMO (U) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia on the issue of BISR joining the SCO Forum.
Growth potential
Today, the SCO is very different from the Shanghai Five, established at the dawn of the 21st century. The world is undergoing complex and profound changes, increasing instability and uncertainty. Against this backdrop, the SCO is facing serious challenges. However, there are hidden possibilities in them. Therefore, it is important to further modernize the organization in order to effectively respond to new challenges and adapt it to modern realities. It is necessary to complete the institutional and managerial reform of the SCO, calibrate the mechanisms of practical interaction and implementation of agreements, find effective models of trade and economic cooperation and finally reach breakthrough joint projects.
In the future, the SCO is seen as one of the key centers of influence and attraction on a global scale. The potential of the Greater Eurasia region is huge, and its role is exponentially increasing.
There is confidence that Belarus and Russia, using their long-term integration experience and competencies within the framework of the Union State, the Slavic core of the SCO, will help our Union to adequately overcome the current geopolitical turbulence and become even stronger and more authoritative.