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Here’s what needs to be done to avoid devaluation of the ruble in 2021

In Belarus, the draft budget for 2021 assumes a dollar exchange rate at around 2,4 rubles, 103,5% of GDP and an average annual oil price of around $40 per barrel. How possible is that the dollar and other indicators will be at the anticipated level and what factors does it depend on? This is what BISR analyst Alexei Avdonin said in his comment for Myfin.by.

– The main parameters of the 2021 budget are conditionally matrix, that is, they are built directly into the forecast calculations and are considered to be the basis for subsequent understanding of the budget revenues and expenditures.

Therefore, such parameters as dollar exchange rate, economic growth rate (GDP) certainly show that the dynamics of economic development will continue and the monetary policy that will be implemented by the state and the National Bank should contribute to intensive economic growth.

With regard to the oil prices, many economic forecasting centers and investment banks expect oil to remain at $40 per barrel or between $35 and $50 over the next two years. The threshold, which has been set at $40, is kind of a media indicator and may correspond to the real behavior of external energy markets.

As for the economic growth rate of 3,5% - can or cannot we achieve this? We can, but we definitely need to speed up, change the management system of our assets and increase their efficiency. And we need to be more active or, as they say, more aggressive in foreign, export markets.

Why? Because competition in these markets will only increase. And we need to change the approaches, the focus of managers and divisions on a top result, in order to stay afloat, to maintain GDP and increase our market shares. Just writing some numbers or parameters in sales volume of products and services won't be enough. It is necessary to change the asset management system for new plans and high rates of economic growth, to raise their efficiency and return.

Naturally, this requires significant organizational efforts, but they must yield results. Because if we ensure a high rate of economic growth, and 3,5% is a high rate of growth, this will give us the opportunity to maintain the stability of the financial and banking system, and keep the exchange rate within the limits set at 2,4 rubles per dollar.

Regarding the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the economy, it must be understood that unless there is a new strong wave in the autumn-winter period, most countries worldwide will start to open their economies. And there will definitely be an increased demand for the products of our companies, both agricultural, processing and industrial.

What does this mean?

Many countries have reduced production during this period and their production rates fell. And now, the world is observing a completely different phenomenon than, for example, during the 2008 crisis. Back then, there were a lot of goods but not enough money, and now, on the contrary, there are few goods but a lot of money. That is why we have to collect this money from external markets. We need to sell as many goods and services as possible, earn as much money as possible and thus ensure the social and economic stability of the state and prevent a sharp increase in inflation and devaluation of the national currency.