A month after the final of the national elections in India and the formation of a new government, Narendra Modi, who headed it for the third time in a row (a historical record since the time of J. Nehru), paid an official visit to Moscow after a two-year pause. There he met with President Vladimir Putin in the format of the traditional (22nd in a row) annual bilateral summit. Experts positioned this event as a meeting of the leaders of the two fastest growing (according to S&P Global) economies in terms of production: the third and fourth place in the world in terms of GDP PPP (the first in China, the second in the United States). Therefore, it is logical that economic and trade issues dominated the agenda. The goal has been set to increase trade turnover to $100 billion by 2030 (about $65 billion in 2023). A program will be prepared for the development of strategic areas of economic cooperation with the expansion of trade in national currencies, achieving the interoperability of financial communication systems.
As Yuri Yarmolinsky, Deputy head of the Foreign Policy Department of the Belarusian Institute of Strategic Research, explained to BelTA, cooperation with India is also interesting for Belarus, therefore, President Alexander Lukashenko sets appropriate tasks for the government. The analyst told what place India currently occupies in the changing world and what areas of cooperation the Union State countries have in the future.
The Russian-Indian agenda
Attention is paid to cooperation in the Far East, the Arctic, as well as the fight against terrorism. It implies creation of a joint working body to develop navigation on the Northern Sea Route, the expansion of connectivity through the North-South ITC, as well as the Chennai-Vladivostok corridor. The parties will create a working group on technology transfer in the military-technical sphere.
The reference in the final statement of the summit to the need for a peaceful resolution of the situation around Ukraine through diplomacy and the participation of both parties to the conflict is considered a success of Russian diplomacy. On the part of New Delhi, this is a landmark gesture in terms of postulating such a peacekeeping format.
At the same time, Indian experts note that even long discussions and personal chemistry between the leaders eventually did not materialize into new major agreements and contracts. To do this, it is necessary to consistently balance the structure and diversify bilateral trade and economic ties outside the framework of Russian raw energy exports. Although it is recognized that cooperation with India remains an important part of the Russian strategy of "pivot to the East", allowing it to destroy the narrative of international isolation.
India and Greater Eurasia
Greater Eurasia is considered an integral part of India's expanded periphery. According to Z. Brzeziński, it represents a "great chessboard" where they struggle for dominance in the region. Indian experts believe that geographically this space is the core of the new international order being constructed by the Russian Federation, based on the three leading world powers balancing each other - Russia, India and China.
The concept of Russia's foreign policy positions India as an important part of Greater Eurasia in terms of ensuring security and stability there, as well as strengthening economic cooperation. However, the regional rivalry between India and China is a challenge to the Russian vision of this project.
The complicated relations between New Delhi and Beijing also pose problems for the effective functioning of the SCO, in which India considered membership as an additional instrument of counterterrorism and a "gateway" to Central Asia. Despite the potential for economic cooperation in this organization, problems related to security and connectivity still persist.
The irregular presence of Prime Minister Modi at the summits of the SCO Heads of State only underlines the pragmatic attitude towards this bloc. This selectivity contrasts especially with the Indian leader's participation in the recent G7 summit in Italy, although India is not a member of the "seven".
At the same time, the President of Belarus at the Astana SCO summit, speaking about the creation of a Greater Eurasia, named unity, cohesion and consolidation in this space among the main factors.
India in a changing world
According to expert forecasts, by 2050 the population of India will amount to 1.67 billion people against 1.32 billion in China and 380 million in the United States. If India's GDP grows by only 5% per year (which is lower than its average annual rate of 6.3% since 1990), and the United States by 2.3%, then the Indian economy will catch up with the American one.
India's entry into the top league of global geopolitics, largely due to structural shifts in the international order, has been successfully saddled by Indian diplomacy. Demographics, territory, strategic position in the region, equidistance from the main centers of power only emphasize its potential as a mediator country and developer of international rules.
Today, India, despite all the long-standing internal problems, is more ambitious and confident about its future than any other major power. It is this self-awareness that determines its domestic and foreign policy.
New Delhi's focus is on its own development. While partnerships matter, a country's external commitments shape its immediate needs, not its ideology. Such a pragmatic approach is manifested, for example, in close ties with the West and simultaneous strategic partnership with the Russian Federation in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. India does not give an unambiguous preference to anyone, but at the same time it makes overtures to everyone.
At the same time, due to its national tradition, India is in no hurry. The momentary conjuncture does not work. This philosophy is based on strategic patience and autonomy, and a focus on solving internal problems. In dialogue with partners (especially in the business sector), Indians can wait for years, dictating their terms. Especially to those who cannot respond adequately at the moment. In this they are similar to the Chinese, who can sit on the riverbank for a long time to see the "corpse" of their enemy floating by.
Personal experience of communicating with Indian colleagues only strengthens the feeling of relatively increased self-esteem, self-confidence, national dignity and self-awareness.
Belarus-India. Key milestones - 2024
In January, the head of state, when setting tasks for the new ambassador to India, Mikhail Kasko, stated the degradation of bilateral relations, although he defined this country as a "difficult direction". It was instructed to once again determine on a planned basis the main areas of cooperation, to develop a clear plan with an emphasis on our usefulness to this country.
Later, in his congratulations on Republic Day (January 26), Alexander Lukashenko expressed interest in further strengthening cooperation to the level of strategic partnership and readiness to implement joint projects in various industries.
In March, these messages were reinforced by the Belarusian Foreign Minister during his visit to India, delivering a message from our President to Prime Minister Modi on ways to develop bilateral relations.
In turn, in April, Ambassador Kasko presented to the Indian Foreign Ministry a draft roadmap for the development of key areas of cooperation for 2024-2026.
In June, the Head of State, congratulating Modi on his election victory, expressed hope for deepening Belarusian-Indian relations in a friendly and mutually beneficial manner. The determination to bring them to the level of strategic partnership on the basis of the mentioned roadmap was confirmed. The Belarusian leader also renewed the invitation to the Prime Minister of India to visit Belarus, which was agreed in New Delhi back in September 2017. In the same month, Minsk hosted the first round of inter-ministerial consultations on consular issues. The parties discussed visa policy, issues of protecting the rights and interests of individuals and legal entities, as well as the possibility of labor migration. In June, the head of the Belarusian diplomatic mission held a meeting at the Ministry of Trade and Industry of India. The issues of organizing the 12th meeting of the Belarusian-Indian Intergovernmental Commission (IGC) on cooperation in economics, trade, industry, science, technology and culture were considered. The expansion of interregional cooperation between the Belarusian regions and the Indian states was also discussed.
In July, the newly appointed Foreign Minister (the official assigned to India) met with his Indian counterpart in Astana. In addition to the SCO topics and the preparation of contacts at the supreme and high levels, the parties agreed to hold the 12th meeting of the GPC in Minsk, timed to an event for business circles. Later, the head of the Belarusian diplomacy, without specifying details, announced the existence of a number of projects and agreements with the Indian side, expressing confidence in their close implementation.
In July, Speaker of the House of Representatives of the National Assembly Igor Sergeenko, on the sidelines of the X BRICS Parliamentary Forum in St. Petersburg, during a meeting with his Indian counterpart Om Birla, already spoke about the role of parliamentary diplomacy in the development of trade and economic ties, including through cooperation within the framework of BRICS.
The President of Belarus expressed optimism about the prospects for resuming relations with India at a recent meeting on industrial development: "Everything is going fine!"
Key findings
India is contradictory and self-sufficient, knows its worth and a priori does not consider itself to owe to anyone. No agreements are worth anything until they coincide with its national interests. Any support is taken by indians for granted by right of a more senior partner.
Mathematically speaking, India is a nonlinear function with many unknowns, but always a constant.
New Delhi looks at any external relations through the prism of ensuring the development and security of its country. National interests are the primacy of the morality of Indian elites, who are the product and beneficiary of the globalization process.
According to Modi, the key sacred principle of doing business is: "when you help India develop, India guarantees your development." It is confirmed by local economist Amit Bhaduri, believing that the success of economic development should be correlated with the ability of the state to feed, clothe and educate the poorest segments of the population (estimated at more than 250 million people).
Therefore, in order to build a truly strategic relationship, it is necessary not only to take, but also to give, because Indians, due to thousands of years of cultural experience, are used to seeing a "double bottom" under any words and playing for a long time. At the same time, Russia's experience shows that even the status of a "special and privileged strategic partner" does not in itself provide special advantages.
Some of the Indian elites still remember the legacy of the Indian-Soviet friendship, but as generations change, pragmatism displaces nostalgia. This puts on the agenda the importance of understanding the nuances of the worldview of a new generation of managers and strategists, who were formed as individuals and professionals already in the post-Soviet period.
Russian-Indian cooperation, especially in the Far East, in the military-industrial complex, in the free trade zone with the EAEU, is in the zone of concomitant risks derived from the unstable international situation. The agreements reached in Moscow can be tested for strength as early as October at the BRICS summit in Kazan – India's stance on the issue of the single currency of this association will become a marker.
Belarus needs to prepare the ground for a strategic partnership by expanding cooperation at basic levels. Investments are needed here, first of all, in a deep understanding of modern India, namely, in the training of diverse Indologists with interdisciplinary competencies. As Indians become aware of their own importance in the new world order, they are becoming more demanding in terms of the depth of their partners' expertise about their country and immersion in local realities.
We should agree with the thesis that Belarus should have no lower level of relations with India than with China. However, it would be wrong to perceive this country linearly - as a simple source of investment, technology and a sales market. This country is something more, radically going beyond the focus of the stereotypical eurocentric perspective, which requires unconventional approaches and tools to build bilateral ties.