The Central Asian countries continue to balance the interests of major players, pragmatically extracting maximum benefits from the emerging realities. The recently held in Astana sixth Consultative Meeting of Heads of State of Central Asia inspired once again to pay attention to this rising region. According to many experts, amid geopolitical turbulence, the region is becoming not only a link between Asia and Europe, but also a new center of global attraction. What is happening and what conclusions is it important for Belarus to draw?
Motivation of external players
The Anglo-Saxon Alliance considers Central Asia primarily as a platform for confrontation with geopolitical opponents in the face of the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China, as well as a rich resource base. And no one really denies it. The United States, for example, openly declare plans to create a new land route from there through Armenia and Azerbaijan, bypassing Russia and China.
Since 2022, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has been active in the region with a focus on "combating false information disseminated by the Russian media." It became known in May this year that USAID and the US Geological Survey will implement a project for five years with a budget of $24 million in all five Central Asian countries and Afghanistan for the management of transboundary water resources in the basins of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers, as well as the exploration and study of groundwater.
Recently, expert publics discussed the news about a deal between USAID and Astana, according to which special American servers will be installed in the customs system of Kazakhstan, part of the customs space common with us and the Russian Federation.
The interests of the European Union are connected with the need to bypass Russian trade routes and access to energy resources in terms of anti-Russian sanctions. Brussels would also like to project its influence from there to the South Caucasus and the Middle East, to restrain cooperation with Russia in the energy sector, and to prevent parallel imports.
China's main focus is gradually shifting towards Eurasia. The main goals of the Celestial Empire are the diversification of energy supply sources, as well as strengthening security in its western provinces.
According to the Jamestown Foundation analysts, Turkey is actively promoting its influence in Central Asia, seeking to fill the vacuum left by Russia after shifting its focus to Ukraine, as well as to stop Chinese expansion. Ankara is also trying to replace Moscow in meeting the military needs of the region.
In recent years, the region's cooperation with Iran has been growing as a convenient way for diversifying trade routes. The Central Asian states have long used the Chabahar port for access to the Indian Ocean. Most actively this route is being developed by Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which have built a corridor towards the Persian Gulf and are increasingly closely cooperating in the transport industry Other countries, such as Turkey, are also involved in these processes.
Recently, the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf have been actively investing in Central Asia, ousting Russian and Chinese interests there, despite all geopolitical risks.
After 2022, Japan became noticeably more active in Central Asia amid a significant increase in global interest in this region rich in minerals.
The Republic of Korea is also strengthening its position there. For example, Seoul and Dushanbe have recently signed an agreement on designing a railway that is to link Tajikistan with Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, contributing to regional trade development.
Interest in Central Asia is shown by Sri Lanka which recently decided to open its embassy in Kazakhstan.
Even geographically remote Ireland intends to join the competition, striving to develop close relations and strategic partnership with Central Asian capitals against the background of global tensions, special military operation in Ukraine, disruption of navigation in the Red Sea and changes in supply chains.
And this is not a complete list.
At the same time, the general goal-setting of the West was unequivocally formulated by the American conservative magazine National Interest. They believe that Western countries should develop a strategic approach that stimulates economic competition in Central Asia between Russia, China and Iran, as well as Turkey and India, so that the countries of the region can diversify their foreign relations. In other words, we are talking about pushing the heads of the main regional players with all resulting negative effects.
Internal reflection
Of course, Central Asian capitals are aware of the increasing role and place of their region in world affairs, which contributes to raising the level of self-awareness of local elites.
In this regard, the statements of national leaders about the beginning of the formation of a common regional identity, as well as a common history based on Turkic, Persian, Arab, Chinese, Russian and Western European sources, are quite logical.
At the same time, simultaneous aspirations towards the region by many players, especially non-regional ones, often with contradictory or even conflicting interests, create risks of zones of tension and possible destabilization. Due to its geography, Central Asia is fully experiencing the negative consequences of the global crisis of confidence and conflicts escalation, in fact, becoming a hostage to the Western sanctions policy.
That is why, at the above-mentioned meeting in Astana, they also talked about the need for a common and indivisible defense policy. The nearest neighbors are also pushing for this. For example, the intention to revise the borders with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan was recently announced in Afghanistan. And this is in addition to the existing contradictions related to the use of transboundary watercourses.
The documents signed at the Astana meeting, in particular the strategic plan "Central Asia - 2040", testify to the determination of the local establishment to follow the course of closer integration and create real mechanisms for this.
In this context, Uzbekistan's initiative to take responsibility for the future of the region deserves special attention. Assuming that leadership is judged by actions, the recent visit to Kabul by Uzbek Prime Minister Abdullah Aripov, in which many experts saw an indirect recognition of the Taliban regime, only confirms Tashkent's ambitions.
Conclusions for Belarus
It is obvious that the current situation in Central Asia postulates the need for the Republic of Belarus to develop its own strategic vision of ways and directions for the effective development of relations with the countries of this region. Especially with Uzbekistan, which is already openly demonstrating the ambitions of a regional leader. Despite the fact that all of them are our partners and allies in the CIS, the EAEU, the CSTO and the SCO, with all the mutual obligations and consequences accompanying this given in the context of the possible emergence of hotbeds of tension there.
The Belarusian Institute of Strategic Research maintains close contacts with colleagues and partners in almost all regional capitals of Central Asia. Among other activities, the BISR participation in a series of significant international expert events planned in Tashkent and Astana this autumn will contribute to the solution of the above-mentioned task.
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