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Dynamics of foreign trade: regional breakdown BISR analyst Andrey Mishin

Following the January-July 2024 outcomes, the foreign trade turnover of goods of the Republic of Belarus made USD 49 billion, 5 percent up over the year. Goods imports are growing faster than exports, which resulted in a negative balance at the level of USD 2.3 billion. It is worth noting that the balance of foreign trade in goods in the CIS countries is positive and exceeds USD 1.1 billion, while in countries outside the CIS, an outflow of currencies is formed - minus USD 3.4 billion.

This general dynamic picture can be supplemented with a number of statistical data. For example, July has become the month in which imports of goods reached the maximum value in 2024, breaking the bar of USD 4 billion. In terms of exports, July, with almost USD 3.5 billion, is second only to June, but this did not fully compensate for accelerated imports. By the way, July has now become the record-setting month for the maximum volume of exports to the CIS countries, imports (both to the CIS countries and beyond) and the anti-record holder for exports to beyond-CIS countries (less than USD 0.9 billion). In total, this led to the formation of the maximum negative value of the balance of foreign trade in goods for 2024 - USD 561.6 billion.

Regional dynamics in foreign trade in goods is seriously different due to the specifics of the specialization of economic regional complexes, as well as the difference between their main external partners.

For example, exports of goods in January-July increased by more than 20 percent in the Vitebsk region, by 5-10 percent in Mogilev, Gomel, Brest, Grodno regions and the city of Minsk, while a decrease of 3.2 percent was noted in the Minsk region. In terms of the value of exports, the city of Minsk, the Minsk region, and the Vitebsk Region are in the lead (over USD 4 billion).

A similar picture is observed quantitatively for imports, but with a different geography – an increase of more than 30 percent in the Vitebsk region, more than 15 percent in the Gomel region, by 0-5 percent in the Mogilev, Brest, Minsk regions and the city of Minsk, while a decrease of 3.1 percent was noted in the Grodno region. In terms of the value of imports, the absolute leader is the city of Minsk (over USD 10 billion), which is due to the specifics of the supply of imported products through dealers and centralized supplies controlled by business entities registered in the capital. The Minsk region also overcame the 3 billion bar.

It is worth noting that the dynamics of foreign trade in goods in the geographical context is generally associated with the dominance of supplies to/from the CIS countries (up to 88 percent in exports, up to 91.3 in imports). The exception is the dominance of non-CIS countries in the export of the Vitebsk region (76.7 percent). Brest region and Minsk region are more dependent on imports from non-CIS countries.

The positive balance of foreign trade in goods is formed in all regions with the exception of the city of Minsk and the Gomel region. The largest positive contribution is made by Minsk (USD 1.6 billion) and Vitebsk (USD 1.4 billion) regions.

Progressive steps to intensify trade with the EAEU countries with the formation of new logistics chains, the search for new partners through close work on the SCO and BRICS platforms stabilize economic conditions, the reorientation of market participants gives positive effects in foreign trade in goods: cooperation with the regions of the Russian Federation is being strengthened, and partnership with the "far arc" countries is developing. The development of the import substitution program ensures a smooth decrease in imports from countries outside the CIS.

Belarusian products continue to be in demand and find new markets.