Since technologies develop in directions determined by both the laws of physics and economic feasibility, it is вполне possible to anticipate how the digitalization of the economy, society, and governance will evolve over the coming decades.
TECHNOLOGIES
The structural foundations of future changes are determined by a number of key and supporting technologies. The key systemic technologies that will have a transformative impact on the economy, the social sphere, and governance include artificial intelligence (AI), sustainable nuclear fusion with high energy efficiency, blockchain, biotechnology, chips with reconfigurable microarchitecture, and quantum computing and communications.
Within the development of these technologies, six key objectives can be identified, the achievement of which is highly likely to lead to rapid transformations in the future:
— the creation of universal and strong AI (expected closer to 2040);
— the achievement of nuclear fusion producing significantly more energy than is required for its generation (stable operation with a small percentage of energy gain has already been achieved; full-scale application in the energy sector is expected closer to 2040);
— the deployment of a network uniting all blockchains (expected by 2035), including systems with different architectures, levels, and consensus algorithms;
— the widespread use of xenobots as artificially created multicellular organisms assembled from the cells of living organisms (prototypes already exist, while full-scale application is expected closer to 2033);
— the introduction of processors capable of randomly changing their microarchitecture every few milliseconds and adapted for the use and protection of data in cloud environments (the Morpheus prototype was developed in 2021; widespread implementation is expected around 2030);
— the creation of a broad class of algorithms operating not on binary data but on the superposition of logical states (among the algorithms that have so far demonstrated effectiveness, only Shor’s and Grover’s algorithms can be noted, primarily for breaking computer systems and searching unstructured data; a broader range of “quantum algorithms” can be expected around 2030).
MOON RUSH
The large-scale introduction of AI into the economy and governance will lead to a dramatic increase in energy consumption. An indirect indication that fusion energy may be approaching practical use is the growing “moon rush” to extract the highly valuable isotope helium-3, which is considered a potential fuel for “clean” fusion power systems. In a fusion reaction using one tonne of helium-3 and 0.67 tonnes of deuterium, the amount of energy released would be equivalent to that produced by burning 15 million tonnes of oil.
Helium-3 is relatively rare on Earth but is available in enormous quantities on the Moon. According to various estimates, the lunar regolith may contain between 0.5 and 2.5 million tonnes of this isotope. This source of energy could satisfy humanity’s needs for 5,000 years. The current price of one gram of helium-3 is approximately $17,500. In addition, experts note that neither helium-3 nor the products of its decay would be radioactive, meaning they would not create the same disposal problems as modern nuclear fuel.
The idea of mining resources on the Moon once sounded like the plot of a science-fiction film. Today, however, we see real plans from private companies and space agencies. In 2020, China’s Chang’E-5 lunar mission returned 1,731 grams of lunar soil to Earth — the first such delivery since 1976. These samples enabled researchers, for the first time, to determine the concentration of helium-3 in lunar soil and calculate the parameters required for its extraction.
Private companies have also begun announcing their “lunar” ambitions. Among them is the startup Interlune, backed by major investors. Rob Meyerson, co-founder of Interlune and former president of Blue Origin, the space company founded by Jeff Bezos, owner of Amazon, stated that the first exploratory mission could take place as early as 2026, while commercial operations may begin in the 2030s.
Although processing large quantities of regolith and transporting helium-3 would be extremely expensive, geochemist Ouyang Ziyuan, scientific director of China’s Lunar Exploration Program, has estimated that “just three annual space shuttle missions could deliver enough fuel to meet the needs of the entire population of Earth.”
Even if skeptics prove correct and fusion technology remains far from commercial viability, helium-3 is of critical interest for other applications.
One of the most realistic uses is in cryogenic engineering. This isotope is required to cool equipment to temperatures approaching absolute zero — about 0.2 Kelvin. Such temperatures are necessary, for example, for the stable operation of quantum computers. Maybell Quantum has already signed a contract with Interlune for the supply of thousands of liters of helium-3 between 2029 and 2035 for its refrigeration systems. The U.S. Department of Energy has also placed an order to be fulfilled by April 2029.
Thus, AI and ultra-fast parallel computing are intensifying energy demands and forcing humanity to look toward space. Refusing to participate in this race would mean certain defeat. Simulations of competition and cooperation conducted by Robert Axelrod within the framework of the so-called Prisoner’s Dilemma demonstrated that computer strategies favoring betrayal over cooperation produced poor long-term outcomes. All of this points to the need for cooperation and shared responsibility when it comes to the development and implementation of systemic technologies.
EXPANDING CAPABILITIES
Improving the quality and accessibility of key enabling technologies will create the foundation for productive competition among countries and companies. These enabling technologies include the Internet of Things, microservices, 3D printing, virtual reality contact lenses, as well as a broad range of artificial intelligence interfaces.
The latter two technologies will lead to a unique user experience and an expansion of human capabilities.
Contact lenses will be able to highlight faces and names, suggest arguments during a debate, or translate speech directly into subtitles displayed before one’s eyes. Over time, people will cease to notice such an interface. The most challenging aspect of achieving this kind of “seamlessness” is integrating AI into the process of actual thinking. The influence of the internet on human cognition was that we stopped memorizing facts and instead learned where to find them.
The impact of AI will be even more profound. It will cease to be merely an assistant. Rather than simply providing information on request, it will begin to integrate itself into the associative chain of human thought. In other words, a human thought will generate an AI response, and the AI response will generate a new human thought. This can be compared to a jam session between two talented musicians who anticipate, complement, and develop each other’s ideas. The difference is that, in this case, the second musician is not a person but an algorithm. The boundary between identity and personality will begin to blur, and it will become difficult to determine where our own thoughts end and the thoughts generated by AI begin.
Through this kind of “seamless interaction” with technology, what is commonly referred to as the average level of intelligence will increase. Most people will become better at thinking and navigating complex information. However, the price of this improvement may be the loss of exceptional abilities to solve complex and interdisciplinary problems. The rise in average intelligence within the “human–machine” partnership will directly correlate with a decline in the human g-factor (general intelligence influencing all other cognitive abilities), which is closely linked to spatial imagination (the ability to manipulate forms mentally) and narrative imagination (the ability to model new stories and create synthesizing metaphors).
By outsourcing many functions of imagination, humans may significantly diminish their own g-factor. In such a scenario, competition will arise not for universally accessible AI, but for people possessing a high g-factor. Society may begin to create special “development capsules” for such individuals, largely outside the influence of AI. By subsequently organizing targeted forms of interaction between these individuals and AI systems, humanity could achieve extraordinary productivity in solving complex problems.
In the more distant future, as systemic and enabling technologies converge, we will move into a society of permanent transformation, in which continuous technological progress will drive us to pursue innovations more intensely than ever before. People will no longer strive to own technology that becomes obsolete so quickly. The loss of the feeling of novelty will generate a sense of dissatisfaction that, in turn, will produce original ideas and further growth.
We will constantly be learning new things, including together with AI, and in a world where time seems to slip away ever faster, we may find ourselves destined to feel like perpetual beginners.
FORECAST FOR BELARUS
One of the main challenges for the Belarusian economy in the future will be the shift in the balance of value added from traditional goods toward digital products. For example, prices for premium versions sold under the B2C model are expected to rise significantly, while prices for traditional products (those without a digital component) will decline due to growing competition and productivity.
The industrial era was an age of accurate and inexpensive analog copies. Information products can be copied much more easily and, moreover, at no cost. As a result, the economy of goods is transforming into an economy of services: hotels as a service (Airbnb), tools as a service (TechShop), clothing as a service (Stitch Fix, Bombfell), toys as a service (NerdBlock, Sparkbox), and so on.
One possible scenario for the development of such an economy is “digital socialism,” which does not rely on a state hierarchy. Rather, it would represent a system of collective resource allocation and the joint creation of value centered around systemic digital platforms.
METANOMICS
The creative economy will continue to develop alongside the expansion of the Metaverse and will eventually evolve into a full-fledged “metanomics” — a system of relations among agents operating within a hybrid environment composed of physical and digital spaces, public and private networks, and open and closed platforms. The agents in such a mixed environment will include not only real people and their digital counterparts (avatars), but also artificial intelligent agents.
At the geoeconomic level, developments will be shaped by the emergence of two competing ethical models of strong AI (conventionally associated with the West and the East, and based respectively on individualistic and collectivist approaches to cultural heritage). Whether through peaceful convergence or military confrontation, only one of these models is expected to prevail, determining either a new stage of fragmentation at a higher technological level or the formation of another techno-social collective identity.
Source: Neftehimia