At a meeting of the Council for Sustainable Development dedicated to the preparation for Belarus' participation in the UN-hosted Summit of the Future
Today, the main trend in global development is the overthrowing the former, unipolar model of international relations and the formation of a new polycentric world based on multilateral interaction and mutual consideration of the interests of all participants. There are processes of deglobalization, expediting the movement towards fragmentation of the global political and economic order, regionalization of economic ties and the international legal system, and the emergence of new mechanisms of cooperation.
As a vivid example, there is a clear tendency for scaling up the SCO , growing influence and authority of this international organization. The principles of equality and multipolarity enshrined by the SCO provide space for initiative to other member states and contribute to the promotion of a positive image of the organization. The accession of states to the SCO family significantly increases their subjectivity and status on the world stage.
Another undeniable trend: the Belarus–Russia integration within the Union State and other integration associations has acquired a model character and is under close attention from our neighbors in the region. The future of not only Belarus and Russia, but also the preservation of the specific appearance of the Eurasian region depends on how dynamic, successful and, most importantly, in demand our movement forward will be.
Analytical structures consider it necessary to look far beyond the planning horizons and already today, based on trends and expectations of citizens, to form a strategic image of the future of Belarus, Russia, and the Union State in their close relationship with other regional and global associations.
Controllability, synergy, and coupling act as the axial elements that will ensure the fulfillment of the mega–goal - the achievement of technological sovereignty. At the same time, its implementation requires the creation of an innovative business model that will combine national specifics and adaptation mechanisms for successful interaction with the business of the far arc countries.
On the other hand, the processes of regionalization and reformatting of the world are inevitably accompanied by an increase in conflict, an increase in interstate contradictions, a redistribution of spheres of influence, the destruction of the pillars of the world balance, a return to the preference for forceful methods to ensure their interests.
The shift of the center of world politics towards the global East and South makes it possible to contain Western pressure. At the same time, the process of full-fledged geopolitical regrouping is determined by two main factors:
- lack of understanding in a broad sense (questions "what is happening?", "what future awaits us?", "what priorities should we focus on?"). This, in turn, increases the importance of interaction between analytical centers on a regional and global scale;
- The presence of real phobias about terrorism and extremism as instruments of revenge and the shackling of any alternatives to development in territories beyond the control of the West. Among other things, modifications of terrorist attacks and extremist actions through the artificial intelligence and other technologies are alarming.
In this context, Belarus can gradually increase its position in the world as a country with its own unique experience in countering destructive manifestations, as well as an entity capable of compromising interaction with partners of varying complexity.
On the eve of the Summit of the Future, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that "global problems are evolving faster than the institutions designed to solve them." Reforms are needed regarding the building blocks of global cooperation. First of all, the system of international institutions and instruments for conflict prevention and cessation, including the UN Security Council, needs reconstruction and modernization. It is necessary to give proper dynamics to their development in the interests of the world community.
The United Nations is still the most important universal mechanism for establishing international standards and norms for regulating relations between states, recognized by all, but in need of further adjustment given the growing voice of countries ready to share responsibility for maintaining a just world order.
Today, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals is impossible without constructive cooperation from all parties. In these conditions, the world needs diplomacy of a qualitatively different level, an influx of fresh young forces with a broad outlook and reach, capable of non-trivial approaches to solving acute problems of our time. Creating conditions for the full-fledged development of the younger generation has become one of the most important factors in the sustainable development of both the national and global order.
The Belarusian Institute of Strategic Research has been organizing the development of the youth analytical movement since 2022. In the first half of 2024, the Republican Youth Competition of analytical projects (research) was held. The participants were more than 130 students and young scientists from 27 Belarusian higher educational institutions, who presented 92 research papers. After analyzing the work sent to the organizing committee, it is possible to identify several trends that young analysts consider to be the most important in the world and which today need to be paid attention to in Belarus:
1. The development of artificial intelligence and its implementation in all spheres of human activity.
Artificial intelligence is seen by young people not only as a property of intelligent systems to perform individual human functions, but above all as a promising technology for intersectoral purposes, which has a significant impact on the development of the global economy in a strategic perspective for 10-15 years. This view allows to attribute AI to the status of a "megatrend", i.e. to recognize that this technology can potentially cause large-scale social, economic, political, environmental or technological changes. At the same time, young people see danger in the possible acquisition of self-consciousness by artificial intelligence, which can become a catalyst for a certain event (or events), after which the development of mankind will reverse. Most of the global risks from the use of AGI, affecting all of humanity, are related to the intentions of certain individuals, organizations and states to use it for illegal purposes. Possessing superhuman capabilities under the condition of great parallelism, AGI models have a huge potential for hacker attacks, the development of bioweapons and unconventional types of weapons, and "shaking" public opinion due to their extraordinary ability to process and generate information that forms a specialized picture of the world.
2. Global environmental challenges.
Climate change leads to catastrophic consequences such as sea level rise, droughts and floods. Environmental pollution leads to a deterioration of human health and a decrease in biodiversity. The disappearance of species creates an imbalance in ecosystems, which can lead to irreversible consequences. Skeptics call environmental issues a fashion trend that is relevant "exclusively today." However, from the science viewpoint, the environmental challenges of our time are an integral reality of the future.
Combating climate change through adaptation and mitigation offers enormous opportunities, as it can potentially contribute to sustainable development.
Systemic transformations in the interests of sustainable development can be implemented through actions in various spheres of society, but changes will not happen if the levers (management, economics and finance, individual and collective actions, science and technology) do not work together to achieve them. Eco-thinking is not just a trend, but a necessity dictated by modernity.
3. Human potential and professions of the future.
First of all, this is the paradigm of education, which, with the development of technology, is significantly transformed towards interactivity and the possibility of quickly mastering new professions and skills. The dynamics of social relations, the development of technology, the emergence of new professions and activities where the transfer of experience from the older generation to the younger is not required, form the youth's demand for subjectivity and autonomy, create conditions for weakening the succession of generations. In conditions of open information borders, channels of positive influence on young people from state institutions (education, upbringing, information, organization of public life) cease to be monopolistic and dominant. This leads to the search for new formats of public relations – from the introduction of a digital rating to various formats of abandoning the pressure of the information society on a person, preserving his identity.
These and other trends proposed by Belarusian young analysts as defining ones can form the basis of the global agenda for developing priority directions for the development of mankind, consolidating the efforts of all countries, regardless of their civilizational affiliation, for the sake of preserving peace and security on the Planet.