The intensification of foreign economic relations between Belarus and BRICS nations, coupled with its new status as a partner country, significantly amplifies the potential for enhancing international cooperation and advancing national interests across various domains. According to analysts, amidst the backdrop of today’s complex global challenges, two critical threats have emerged as paramount concerns for the international community: energy security and food security.
According to reports by the World Bank, the number of people facing hunger has surged from 705,000 in 2023 to 1.9 million in 2024. Ongoing conflicts across diverse regions are intensifying the crisis, driving most vulnerable communities to flee their homes. The Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC 2024) by World Bank reveals that by July 2024, approximately 99.1 million people in 59 countries were grappling with food crises and hunger, forcing them to migrate, a sharp increase from 91.7 million at the close of 2023. These figures underscore an impending food crisis that looms over the global community and requires immediate and decisive action. Drastic measures are imperative to halt the advance of food insecurity, alleviate hunger, and mitigate the risks of related human mortality.
Among the pressing global trends shaping the food sector today, several critical issues emerge:
- Agricultural production and food supply are failing to keep pace with the needs of an ever-growing global population.
- The fluctuations in world commodity markets are heavily influenced by the varying levels of economic development among nations.
- An increase in caloric intake driven by rising incomes in developing countries and regions is propelling global food demand.
- Unlawful sanctions on fertilisers are negatively affecting agricultural outputs.
- The costs associated with logistics in global food trade are escalating at an alarming rate.
- Zones of influence in the food sector are undergoing a significant transformation across continents.
Belarus, as an integral player in the global food system, is dedicated to fulfilling its national socio-economic priorities by ensuring that its population has access to sufficient quantities of safe and nutritious food in line with global trends in food security and nutrition.
The food market in Belarus is characterised by robust and sustainable agro-industrial sector, reflecting the significant strides the country has made in recent years toward achieving food security.
Belarus has carved out a niche for itself on the international stage as an "agrarian and industrial power," a status bolstered by the implementation of the current Doctrine of National Food Security until 2030. This strategic document aims to enhance the supply of high-quality food and ensure its accessibility for adequate nutrition and a healthy lifestyle. It promotes the development of competitive agricultural production while fostering socio-economic conditions that encourage rational consumption of food products.
At the close of 2021, Belarus ranked 36th among 113 countries in the Global Food Security Ranking, outpacing all other CIS nations except Russia, which held the 23rd position. However, 2022 brought significant challenges. The country fell 19 places in terms of integral level of food security, a decline attributed to tightening foreign trade restrictions, the emergence of new threats and risks, and rising geopolitical tensions.
Belarus has been able to achieve global standards in food consumption across nearly all products, and the quality balance of citizens' diets continues to improve each year, as evidenced by data from the National Statistical Committee.
The Republic of Belarus has played an active role in shaping the global Agenda 2030, committing itself to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which are designed to enhance the standard and quality of life for all. Notably, the country has successfully met several key targets set for the period leading up to 2030. In line with Goal 2: Zero Hunger, Belarus has made remarkable strides, as evidenced by its inclusion in the 2023 Global Hunger Index among countries with a low level of hunger among 136 nations. The Agriculture Orientation Index calculated by comparing the proportion of government spending on agriculture to its contribution to GDP, stood at 1.1 in 2023 (agriculture encompasses farming, forestry, fishing, and hunting). In 2022, the country secured the ninth position globally in this index (with a value of 0.7), sharing it with Norway, Canada, and Slovenia. Only Switzerland, Luxembourg, the Czech Republic, Malta, Ireland, Cyprus, Kazakhstan, and Denmark ranked higher.
In 2023, Belarus achieved a high level of self-sufficiency in key agricultural products: meat (134.9%), milk (283.0%), eggs (123.2%), potatoes (110.8%), and vegetables and cucurbits (103.2%).
A nation's food independence is normally evaluated across ten categories of products — cereals, milk, meat, sugar, vegetable oil, potatoes, vegetables, fruits and berries, eggs, and fish. Based on these metrics, the Republic of Belarus holds a prominent position in the food security rankings among the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
Over the past five years, nearly all categories have witnessed a significant increase in per capita production of essential agricultural products (Table 1).
Table 1. Production of essential agricultural products per capita,
2019–2023 (in kilograms)
|
|
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
|
Cereals and legumes |
768 |
923 |
787 |
943 |
835 |
|
Potatoes |
462 |
395 |
366 |
418 |
438 |
|
Vegetables |
313 |
298 |
293 |
310 |
305 |
|
Fruits and berries |
57 |
82 |
66 |
89 |
70 |
|
Sugar beet |
525 |
427 |
416 |
458 |
528 |
|
All types of livestock and poultry |
131 |
137 |
134 |
132 |
139 |
|
Milk |
784 |
827 |
840 |
853 |
908 |
|
Eggs, pieces |
373 |
372 |
379 |
375 |
375 |
In 2023, the cereals production experienced a decline, primarily driven by seasonality and climatic conditions.
Forecasts by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) for 2024–2025 suggest a stable equilibrium between supply and demand in the grain market. World cereals production is projected to reach 2,846 million tonnes.
The global grain market is a cornerstone of food security worldwide, which makes the support and stimulation of this industry crucial in the ongoing battle against hunger. The rising demand for cereals enhances their investment appeal and propels the search for innovative ways to boost yields. Global urbanisation, coupled with the growth of African and Latin American nations and the shift towards Western dietary habits in the Middle East and China, are elevating the significance of wheat and rice on the world stage. Analysts predict that over the next decade, global grain trade will be shaped by Africa, the Middle East, China, Southeast Asia, Western Asia, and Latin America – regions experiencing escalating demand for food.
One of the pressing challenges on the global agenda will be addressing the volatility of grain prices. Fluctuations in supply logistics are driving up transportation costs, while climate factors continue to impact production levels. In 2022, grain prices surged to their highest point since 1995, with an annual price index soaring to 154.7%. Thanks to a series of measures implemented in 2023, this figure has been reduced to 130.9%. However, experts warn that India, the largest supplier of rice, may trigger a spike in global rice prices by the end of 2024 due to a ban on basmati rice exports introduced in July 2023. Should these restrictions persist, rice prices could rise by as much as 20% across various regions.
According to the FAO forecasts, global grain production is set to increase up to 3.2 billion tonnes by 2033, driven largely by a surge in maize and wheat output. Belarus has embarked on an experiment to cultivate its own hybrid maize varieties, establishing experimental fields dedicated to this endeavour. The yields of this experiment align with global averages and receive special oversight from the Head of State. A key feature of this project is the integration of Belorusian varieties into crop rotations, specifically tailored to local climatic conditions. Remarkable progress has already been made in both grain and forage maize varieties, with 2023 witnessing a significant boost in the gross harvest of forage maize, accompanied by higher yields (Table 2).
Table 2. Gross harvest and yield of forage maize across all categories of farms,
2019-2023
|
|
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
||
|
Forage maize |
|||||||
|
Gross harvest, thousand tonnes |
20,858 |
23,411 |
21,862 |
21,302 |
23,233 |
||
|
Yield, centners per hectare |
223 |
230 |
233 |
212 |
244 |
||
Analysts predict that by 2033, a lion's share of wheat consumption will be dominated by China, India, and the EU, while the USA and China will lead in maize consumption. The EU is expected to be the primary consumer of feed grain, with China and India maintaining their positions as key players in rice consumption.
The market for milk and dairy products also plays a crucial role in ensuring food security. In Belarus, this sector is marked by substantial production volumes, robust consumption rates, and a strong export orientation. In 2023, Belarusian dairy products were shipped to 59 countries. Among the CIS nations, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan emerged as the most significant markets, while China, Georgia, Israel, the Philippines, and Mongolia led among Asian countries. In the Persian Gulf region, Belarus is strengthening ties with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Oman; in Africa, collaborations are emerging with Ghana, Egypt, Gambia, and others. The country boasts dozens of major export-oriented enterprises specialising in milk, cheese, and fermented dairy foods.
In 2024, global trade in dairy products is projected to reach 85 million tonnes (in milk equivalent), marking a 0.8% increase from 2023.
Forecasts for the development of the global milk market by 2033 are relatively optimistic. Notably, as global milk production is projected to grow at a rate of 1.6% per year, the market volume is expected to reach 1,085 million tonnes by 2033. A substantial portion of this growth—approximately 30%—will stem from India and Pakistan. In contrast, the European Union is anticipated to face stagnation in demand and a decline in milk production, with experts citing environmental policies and a reduction in the number of dairy cows as key contributing factors. China is set to maintain its position as the world's largest importer of processed dairy products over the next decade, accounting for 14% of global imports in 2023, according to the FAO. The leading exporters in this category will be the EU, New Zealand, and the United States, which collectively dominated the market in 2023, making up about 70% of processed dairy product exports—including cheese, butter, and powdered milk. The growing emphasis on health, active lifestyles, and the promotion of healthy eating habits in developed nations is expected to catalyse the demand in low-fat dairy products, plant-based milk alternatives, low-sugar items, and foods enriched with vitamins, proteins, and probiotics. Surveys conducted by international organisations and studies by the Institute of System Research in Agro-Industrial Complex of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus highlight an increasing demand for premium products—those that are farm-fresh and of high quality. This trend is likely to give rise to niche markets for milk and dairy products in developed countries, particularly within the high-end price segment.
In 2023, Belarus produced 8.14 million tonnes of milk, securing its position among the Top 5 exporters of dairy foods globally as the third-largest dairy exporter for butter and whey powder, fourth for cheese exports, and fifth for skimmed milk powder exports.
The nation is placing particular emphasis on enhancing milk production technologies through modernisation, reconstruction, and the construction of new commercial dairy farms. This also includes the integration of cutting-edge technologies, digitalisation, and a commitment to science-intensive production methods.
However, amidst these remarkable achievements, it is crucial to highlight the troubling practice of employing illegal sanctions as a means of exerting pressure on the food market. Restrictions on raw material supplies and the banning of transit routes strike a blow to developing countries. Various barriers related to financing, transactions, and transportation of potash fertilisers (in 2021, Belarus accounted for 20% of global exports in this category) only serve to exacerbate the ongoing global fertiliser shortage. This, in turn, leads to soaring prices and heightened risks to food security in numerous regions around the globe. Analysts from the UN Global Crisis Response Group on Food, Energy, and Finance have observed that the decline in fertiliser supplies from Belarus has caused prices on these essential goods to rise more swiftly than food prices themselves. As a result, small businesses and farmers in small and medium-sized countries are being forced to cut back on cereals production due to escalating fertiliser costs, which ultimately impacts the final price consumers have to pay.
China and India are the largest importers of potash fertilisers worldwide, signing long-term contracts for stable supply at fixed prices. Notably, Belarus ranks second in potash fertiliser imports to China. However, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus reports a dramatic decline in its share in potash fertiliser markets in African countries, plummeting from nearly 42% to 2.8% in 2022. Experts warn that the absence of Belarusian potash in Africa has contributed to a 16% drop in cereals yields.
The shifting logistics of fertiliser supply and the disruption of agricultural food supply chains pose a significant threat to international food security.
The successful evolution of BRICS has sparked a series of new trends that elevate the group's significance in international relations. The array of topics under discussion in BRICS continues to expand, reflecting its growing influence. Today, BRICS not only proposes draft solutions but also articulates core positions on pivotal issues shaping both regional and global agendas—food security being a prime example.
Analysts have consistently emphasised the need for effective mechanisms to foster new formats of cooperation and interaction among nations. Tackling contemporary challenges within the global food landscape can only be achieved through collective action. Regardless of each country's production potential and specialisation, the crucial factor lies in its capacity to both offer and receive assistance. The BRICS platform offers a unique opportunity for small and medium-sized nations to engage closely with larger states, strengthening their role in the global arena.
The Republic of Belarus, a member of the SCO and an official partner of BRICS, possesses a wealth of scientific, economic, and production expertise, alongside extensive knowledge base and substantial practical experience in agriculture. The creation of modern and effective communication frameworks in the context of digital transformation — particularly through specialised BRICS industry platforms designed for the exchange of global practices — will not only empower Belarus to cultivate a robust national potential in food security but also strengthen trade and economic cooperation on mutually beneficial terms.
This text reflects the personal opinion of the authors, which may not coincide with the position of the BRICS Expert Council.