Yuri Yarmolinsky, BISR Analyst, Head of the SCO and BRICS Research Center
On October 16, 2024, the Republic of Belarusin for the first time participated in the 23rd meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Council of Heads of Government in Islamabad at the level of Prime Minister as a full member.
The main preliminary results
The agenda and final documents of the event covered the main areas of the organization's activities, and also largely took into account our proposals to create a Development Bank, a Development Fund and the SCO Inter-Exchange Union, combine various integration associations in Eurasia, stitch together a common transport and logistics space, strengthen exchanges in the field of science, technology and innovation, and strengthen humanitarian ties.
The text of the joint final communique of the CHG has yet to be studied and analyzed in more detail. However, it is clear from the operational significant news that the optics of the meeting were focused on the prospects for the development of cooperation in trade, investment, transport, energy, agriculture, the use of national currencies in mutual settlements, technologies and innovations, educational and cultural and humanitarian exchanges.
The partners agreed to create an Association of SCO Investors and hold consultations on financial support mechanisms for project activities. A concept for the development of a New Economic Dialogue has been approved, designed to enhance interaction between Member States.
The Pakistani side raised the problem of poverty in the SCO region, which is called a "moral imperative" that requires collective attention. It is proposed to overcome it through increasing economic cooperation and integration, as well as investments in regional infrastructure. In this context, such flagship projects as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the North-South International transport corridor were highlighted.
It was emphasized that unilateral coercive measures and protectionist policies contradict the principles of international law, suppress economic growth, hinder the development of technology and exacerbate inequality.
It was noted that reforming the global financial architecture and trade regimes is crucial for promoting equitable development. Therefore, it is important to create an alternative financing mechanism in the SCO that can breathe new life into frozen projects.
The growing consensus among Member States on the use of national currencies in mutual settlements is a promising development for developing tools to protect against global financial shocks. In this regard, the SCO Interbank Association has been identified as the most appropriate forum.
In the field of security, the participants approved reforms aimed at strengthening the SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS). In this regard, the Pakistani side focused on the need to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan, which, due to its proximity, represents a "rare opportunity" for trade and transit in the SCO space.
In the context of the importance of preserving peace and security in the Eurasian region, Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko called on the SCO partners to actively participate in the discussion on the Eurasian Charter of Diversity and Multipolarity in the 21st Century, initiated by the President of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko.
At the end of the meeting, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif handed over the chairmanship of the CHG to his Russian counterpart Mikhail Mishustin. The next meeting will be held in Russia in 2025.
Now, obviously, it is up to concrete actions in order to coordinate the implementation of the agreements reached. It is characteristic that in this context there were calls to give priority to cooperation rather than political differences and to work hand in hand.
The intrigue of the event and the denouement
The main intrigue of the event, perhaps, was the participation of Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar (Indian foreign ministers have not visited Islamabad for more than 10 years). The Indian diplomat traditionally raised in his speech the problems of cross-border terrorism, lack of trust, mutual respect and sovereign equality in the context of the provisions of the SCO Charter, linking them with effective economic cooperation and sustainable development. In addition, India is the only one of all the participants who again refused to support the Chinese BRI, including efforts to join the EAEU initiative.
At the same time, the general atmosphere of the distinguished Indian guest's stay in the Pakistani capital was generally positive.
S. Jaishankar attended the reception on behalf of Prime Minister Sh. Sharif, where they had a brief informal conversation. In addition, he even planted a tree in Islamabad. In his speech, he congratulated Pakistan on the chairmanship of the CHG and expressed India's full support. In social networks after the summit, the minister called the meeting productive. Later, on his way home, he thanked Prime Minister Sharif and his colleague I. Dar for "hospitality and courtesy." Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar called the visit of the head of Indian diplomacy an "icebreaker" and a "turning point."
At the same time, most Indian political observers were pessimistic on the eve of the event and largely repeated the theses of official New Delhi about the improbability of progress in relations with Pakistan. Although there were some restrained optimists who admitted the possibility of behind-the-scenes negotiations and steps towards their normalization (for example, the return of ambassadors and the restoration of mutual trade).
Points over i were placed by the leading analytical center Observer Research Foundation, affiliated with the Indian Ministry of External Affairs. They noted in an operational comment that S. Jaishankar's visit to Islamabad was a signal to the SCO members (primarily in Central Asia) about New Delhi's commitment to the interests of this regional grouping, despite the continuing internal contradictions and problems, and Pakistan is a secondary phenomenon for India. Indian strategists do not yet believe that relations with their neighbor are about to change in the near future, since, according to the same minister, the "era of continuous dialogue" with him is over, and for the Modi government there is neither an incentive nor an interlocutor from that side to radically change its approach.
The US reaction
The US Department of State representative, Matthew Miller, asked about the meeting of the SCO CHG in Islamabad in a familiar mentoring manner, calling on the participating countries to respect international law, as well as to confirm the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of all states. It was emphasized separately that participation in multilateral forums should comply with these principles.
Reaction to the event in Pakistan
It is noted that the growing importance of China in the world, Russia's pivot to the East and the renaissance of Central Asia provide Pakistan with an opportunity to assert itself on the world stage. Active participation in the SCO promises economic benefits and diplomatic capital, taking into account the country's strategic position in the region.
The complex economic situation in Pakistan with rising inflation, declining foreign exchange reserves and sluggish growth further stimulates its participation in the SCO. By deepening ties with Member States and applicants, it would like to benefit from regional markets, infrastructure investments and increased trade flows, especially through the BRI, as well as trade links with Central Asian countries and Russia. The calculation is based on the fact that the Islamabad meeting of the SCO CHG will send a signal to global investors about the country's openness to business and investment.
A number of observers stress that Pakistan should emphasize its strategic role in the BRI initiative, in particular in the CPEC, and position itself as a key player in connecting Central and South Asia with global markets. By doing so, he will strengthen ties not only with China, but also with the Central Asian republics, which are striving for greater interconnectedness and economic integration.
Consequently, economic cooperation is closely linked to Pakistan's broader geopolitical goals, as these ties will strengthen the country's strategic importance in the region.
Apart from the economy, security remains an equally important challenge for Pakistan against the background of internal problems in this area, especially in border areas where terrorism and extremism persist. RATS offers a coordination platform for working with regional powers in the fight against these threats, including those emanating from neighboring Afghanistan. In fact, cooperation in the field of regional security within the SCO goes hand in hand with economic stability, as it contributes to the creation of favorable conditions for sustainable growth.
It should be emphasized that the CHG meeting took place amid increased security measures in Islamabad due to the recent terrorist attacks in Karachi and mass protests in the Pakistani capital itself.
In contrast to the pessimism of Indian strategists in Pakistan, they believe that the SCO as a multilateral forum is a convenient platform and provides a good chance to try to straighten the dialogue with India. The very fact that Islamabad invited New Delhi to the meeting signals its readiness for diplomatic cooperation in a broader framework, and also positions it as a responsible player in the expanded region of South and Central Asia. At the same time, no one has any illusions that regional cooperation on multilateral platforms such as the SCO will simultaneously relieve bilateral tensions, but it is designed to pave the way for a more sustainable dialogue in the future.
Thus, the beginning of Belarus' full participation in the SCO has been laid, albeit against a rather contradictory geopolitical background. However, it is deeply symbolic that it took place precisely on the basis of a constructive regional economic agenda, which is of paramount importance in our country.
There are many interesting events and events ahead of us on other tracks of interaction. Already in May-June 2025, the Belarusian Institute of Strategic Research, with the status of a National Research Center, will represent the country at the anniversary 20th meeting of the SCO Forum in New Delhi as a full member of this expert advisory platform.