Дата публикации

Conflict settlment in Transcaucasia does not involve simple solutions

Anatoly Boyashov, analyst at the Belarusian Institute of Strategic Research, is confident that the foundation for the future peaceful resolution of the conflict in Transcaucasia is being laid today, but not because of an external factor.

Анатолий Бояшов

– The USA and NATO are not a new introductory: due to the support of the Diaspora, Armenia has always enjoyed the location of American capital, participated in peacekeeping operations together with NATO countries,” Anatoly Boyashov draws attention. “It is not surprising that Russia is significantly involved: even if Nagorno-Karabakh is withdrawn from the CSTO mandate, Russia ensures negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and a ceasefire.

According to the analyst, the restart of the balance of power was launched at the moment when the Armenian authorities tried to differentiate the issues of Yerevan and Stepanakert in the internal electoral field.

- This opened up an opportunity for the United States to play on internal contradictions. As a result, the stakes are getting higher: Armenia is raising rates by launching peacekeeping exercises with the United States near Yerevan. Stepanakert is selling short by nominating the relatively young but competent Samvel Shahramanyan in the elections. As a result, the subjectivity of Stepanakert in the hierarchy of settlement participants is growing, which the stakeholders will rely on,” Anatoly Boyashov emphasizes.

The expert explains the intensity of passions in the information space by the fact that the settlement in Transcaucasia does not involve simple solutions:

-The situation affects the interests of historical players in the Middle East. Discussing conditions for Nagorno-Karabakh development will contribute to elaborating a model for the disputed territories delimitation. Regardless of whether this model will be implemented as a multilateral mechanism or third-party guarantees, a direct dialogue between Azerbaijan and Armenia should be welcomed.