Дата публикации

On the provisional results of the year and the country’s economic development

The Belarusian economy is currently on a trajectory of recovery growth.

The expansion of output, supported by ¬stimulating domestic economic policy, alternative logistics chains, refocusing to new markets and increased demand in Russia — all this allowed our country to withstand the sanctions pressure. As a result, in the first ten months of this year, we saw the implementation of the plan for the main economic indicator — GDP grew by 3.8 percent, including by almost 5.9 in October.

One of the main drivers of the economy is industry, which in January-October showed the highest growth rates among the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. In fact, industrial output in the EEU grew up by 3.7 percent, in Belarus — by 8 percent.

Foreign trade has also retained positive trends. The balance of foreign trade in goods and services in October 2023 was positive in the amount of 56.9 million dollars.

The increase in ¬household consumption was supported by an increase in real cash incomes of the population in January-September by 5.8 percent compared to last year's level and the expansion of consumer lending.

In October, compared to September (with the elimination of seasonality), investments in machinery, equipment and vehicles increased.

In all likelihood, in order to adjust to excessive domestic and external demand, manufacturers have to expand production capacities, since existing ones are used at a high level of utilization.

The forecast for next year is optimistic: inflation is planned to be kept at the level of up to 6 percent. Special efforts will be focused on the downward impact on the prices of services (including unregulated ones), since the growth of prices for them outstrips the growth of prices for goods.

Starting from 2024, price stability will be the main goal of the National Bank: thanks to the actions of the regulator, it will be possible to maintain it.

In general, it can be concluded that for modern Belarus, some decline in freight transportation and the information and communication sector will not be a fatal factor, provided that investments continue to increase, the domestic market develops and the value added of the industrial sector increases. In this regard, it will be necessary to scale the specific positive effects of digitalization in the real sector, envisaged by ¬Presidential Decree No. 381 "On digital development", as well as smoothly change the sphere of financial management in accordance with modern high-tech trends.