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BISR analyst on economic aspects of the national security of Belarus

Economy – the basis of independence of any state

For wide coverage of the main provisions of the draft Concept of National Security of the Republic of Belarus in the information space, the document has been published on the National Legal Internet Portal. The draft Concept reflects the transformation of the entire spectrum of modern threats, defines unified approaches to shaping and implementing state policy in the field of national security. The document has been approved by the ¬Security Council of the Republic of Belarus and is being discussed publicly with the involvement of representatives of the scientific and expert community.

A large block of issues in the draft Concept is allocated to the economy. Recall that in the Address to the Belarusian people and the National Assembly, the President said that economy is one of the main conditions for sovereignty and independence. The fundamental role belongs to the industrial complex. The Head of State noted that the annual growth in industry should be kept at the level of a successful 2021 – 105-107 percent. The potential for this is enormous. Unique world-class production facilities are operating effectively in the country.

Ирина Русак
BISR Analyst Irina Rusak

Irina Rusak, analyst at the Belarusian Institute of Strategic Research, Candidate of Economic Sciences is sure that economy is the basis of independence of any state, the foundation of ensuring national security:

— Thanks to the work of this system, which covers the production, sale, distribution, consumption of goods and services, the state has resources to maintain the army, develop infrastructure, and ensure social standards of living of the population.

The expert recalled that Belarus was forced to face a new reality: sanctions, the need to restructure logistics chains, access to Asian markets, import substitution, development of managerial solutions to counter new threats:

— The term "economic security" sounds different today than 5-7 years ago, when the task was to increase the share of the service sector in GDP, leaving only really modern and operating enterprises in the production sector, and thus form a market socially-oriented economy. Today, the economic vector is aimed at developing the production sector in clear interaction with the service sector. We rely on technology, the development of the national market of scientific and technical products, introduction of modern tools in industrial production in the first place. In support of this, the analysis of statistical data shows a tendency to increase the share of the production sector in recent years. The share of the manufacturing sector in GDP increased by 2.9 percent — from 37.9 percent in 2018 to 40.8 percent in January-September 2022. The share of the services sector in GDP declined due to the pandemic in 2021, then tourism and transport services sank, though a slight increase was demonstrated in January-September 2022.

Irina Rusak is sure that the key to ensuring economic security for Belarus is in the regions where labor resources, intellectual capital, industry flagships are concentrated, and there are also opportunities to implement initiatives and projects that are already points of growth of the economy of the whole country:

— In the Address, the Head of State emphasized the development of regions and districts. A specific task has been set to implement an investment project in each district and stimulate regions development through increasing outputs and services in the regions, using local resources, regional potential in agriculture, tourism, industry, and intellectual capital. Taking into account the competitive advantages and specialization of the regions in the Concept of National Security will allow rapid response to any changes both in economic and political terms. The new Concept focuses on such approaches, takes into account the regional specifics characteristic of the "special conditions" of each region and administrative district of Belarus.