1. In the context of geopolitical restructuring at the level of geopolitics and geo-economics, experts identify the following key trends:
- the gradual decline of the leading states of the collective West and the rise of the developing countries of the Global Southeast;
- degradation of international law and traditional multilateral institutions (for example, the UN), their inability to adequately respond to growing challenges and crises;
- the chaotic state of global politics and economics, the intensification of competition and the escalation of contradictions (often insoluble) between the leading world powers (China, the United States and Russia);
- the multiplication of proxy conflicts and change of their nature due to the increasing struggle for access to critical resources and transport arteries, regional competition for influence involving multiple players and volatile alliances;
- stricter requirements for political leadership, namely: the ability to manage crises, coordinate actions within different jurisdictions and among many players, moderate public perception and crisis communication;
- regionalization – the unification of small and medium-sized states, often with incomparable economic potentials and political systems, in order to effectively promote and protect their national interests, as well as minimize the associated risks. The strategic partnership of Belarus with such centers of power as Russia and China is a clear example of such effective interaction;
- increasing the role and place of small and medium-sized powers in world affairs, as well as macro-regions, such as Greater Eurasia, which are becoming more ambitious and even daring.
Of course, such turbulent dynamics form a growing demand for new integration formats, which automatically changes the global balance of power.
The new normality is already recognized in the West, but there is nothing they can do about it. However, no one is going to give up leadership there just like that, so a tough geopolitical struggle of coalitions, ideas and meanings is inevitably ahead of us.
2. The Eurasian macroregion is the largest on the planet. The majority of the Earth's population lives there and strategic resources are concentrated. Peace and stability in the region is the cornerstone of global security, as the leading nuclear powers are located there.
The experience of the Union State, the CSTO and the EAEU suggests that Eurasian security is multidimensional and inherently linked to the development agenda. Its important factor is the civilizational and cultural diversity. Hence the Belarusian-Russian proposal for the security of Eurasia and the rest of the world – the Charter of Multipolarity and Diversity in the 21st Century.
However, security is one of the layers in the matrix of universal human needs (Maslow's hierarchy of needs). National dignity and sovereignty, mutual respect and equal opportunities must once again be filled with substantive content. The true essence of these concepts is that they underlie all conflicts, and they can become a prerequisite for peace.
The human, its social and other needs are the basis of security at all levels. Therefore, we have to fight for the minds of our fellow citizens, especially young people, and national states should become the center of attraction for everyone. By developing them, individually and jointly maintaining law and order, stability and economic growth, creating conditions for the realization of human capital, we will build a solid security system not only in Greater Eurasia, but also on the whole planet, we will never become hostages of someone's geopolitical ambitions and experiments.
3. Obviously, the SCO and BRICS are tools for developing and ensuring security, including in Greater Eurasia. This year, Belarus became the 10th member of the SCO and a BRICS partner country.
Geographically, the BRICS is oriented outward, into the global world, while the SCO is oriented rather inward, into Eurasia. Therefore, it is beneficial for Belarus to participate in both groups at the same time, as they harmoniously complement each other.
The SCO and BRICS are communities of the future, unique formats of the new fair globalization 2.0 with sovereign equality of partners regardless of national power.
In a short period of time, by historical standards, they have become a new center of attraction for developing countries. SCO and BRICS are the prototype of the future world order.
We are proud that Belarus is small, compared to Russia or China, but a bright puzzle in this harmonious global palette.
Belarus has no planetary ambitions to spread its interests across all continents. We are a compact country with an open economy. But time and the situation in the world are breaking established patterns, coupled with the demand for global justice and responsibility. It seems that time has chosen us to once again be participants in the overhaul and improvement of our common home, as it was in 1945, when Belarus became one of the founders of the United Nations.
It is symbolic that Belarus officially became part of the BRICS right in the year of the Russia's chairmanship. This charges its potential with energy and spirit of the Union State of Belarus and Russia, which has passed the test of time. In its deep essence, the Union State is the Slavic center of power of Greater Eurasia.
The SCO and BRICS are a mixture of ancient civilizations. Constructive, mutually respectful intercultural dialogue is the basis of strategic integrity and stability in Greater Eurasia.
Therefore, for us, membership in these groups is not just a tribute to a fashion trend, but a conscious civilizational choice.
However, the BRICS and the SCO, as communities striving for fair global governance, still have work to do. Economic, structural and political barriers to trade and economic integration and investment cooperation remain, and there are difficulties in positioning themselves as influential participants in world trade.
As it expands, internal contradictions are also noticeable, and there is no getting away from this yet. In turn, the rejected countries can become easy prey for the West, which uses all tools, from playing on contradictions to direct intimidation and pressure.
That is why Belarus promotes the concept of "integration of integrations", advocating the synergy of the potentials of regional associations such as the EAEU, CIS, CSTO, BRICS, SCO, ASEAN. Together we are a real force and we can do more!
Thus, BRICS and SCO are optimal models of multilateral cooperation that can bring closer the restructuring of the international system, taking into account new realities. The expansion of these associations and the increase in the number of nominees indicate that more and more countries are ready for such changes.
At the same time, it is important to understand that: in the current state, the SCO and BRICS objectively cannot solve all global problems. Their attractiveness as an alternative to the Western-centric world order lies in promoting fair reforms of the UN system and the Bretton Woods institutions, taking into account the balance of interests of the participating countries.
The mission is not to dismantle, but to deeply reform the current world order so as not to implicitly provoke a new round of bloc confrontation and polarization in the world under the image of an anti-Western bloc. The strategic goal is to unite for common prosperity and security, giving priority to cooperation, dialogue and development–oriented initiatives.
Obviously, this requires a careful balance between the security and development agendas. The optimal formula: security through development.
As our sociology shows, as we get tired of the agenda of war and conflict in society, the demand for a peaceful image of the future becomes increasingly clear. For sustainable development and creation, the world needs exactly this image of the future, and now this image of a convenient and comfortable future for all of humanity arises in the interaction of the countries of the Global Southeast (Greater Eurasia is an integral part of them), those countries that have become commonly called the global majority.
The layering and complexity of the modern world requires non-trivial innovative approaches to the study and analysis of ongoing processes. In such circumstances, an important factor in the success of nation States is the creation and development of schools of strategic analysis and forecasting, as well as their constructive interaction with each other in order to achieve common goals and objectives.
In order not to lose the cognitive confrontation, to preserve our common home, Greater Eurasia, for future generations, it is extremely important for us (the expert-analytical and academic community) to jointly, systematically, continuously and proactively generate relevant ideas and meanings and broadcast them in the same mode in our societies, especially among young people.
It is appropriate to recall the quotes of Bhim Rao Ambedkar, the architect of the Constitution of India: "Humans are mortal. So are the ideas. An idea needs propagation as much as a plant needs watering. Otherwise both will wither and die.” Because, as we know, nature abhors a vacuum…