Incumbent US President Joe Biden announced on July 21 he would run for a second term. He supported the Vice President Kamala Harris candidacy. Harris said she is seeking the US Democratic presidential nomination.
Republican candidate Donald Trump has repeatedly stated it will be much easier for him to defeat the current Vice President of the United States. The US presidential election will be held in November.
Due to the logic of the political process recently unfolded in the United States, Biden's exit from the campaign was quite predictable, as was Harris' nomination.
The Democrats have a situation where the bench is very short, in fact there are several governors, for example, of California or Michigan. As for Michelle Obama, it seems like she has been saved for the next electoral cycle… Due to the fact that the ratings of Biden and the Democratic Party as a whole have declined, especially after the debate with Trump and the shooting at Trump, the Democrats are still less likely to win, though the gap between Republicans and Democrats is not critical at the moment.
If Harris is nominated, the campaign funds raised by Biden's team can be further used for her campaign. If they both leave the race, then there are certain financial restrictions on the use of these funds. Therefore, Kamala is a fairly obvious candidate. At the same time, her confirmation as the Democratic candidate should take place later, in August, at the party congress. Right now, analysts' attention is focused on this congress, because some debates and unpredictable factors are still possible. Nevertheless, the Democratic Party is very heterogeneous at the moment.
Hopes are pinned on Harris, among other things, because for supporters of the Democrats, the victory of anyone is important, but not Trump. In this sense, the rating of any candidate from the Democratic Party will be Trump's anti-rating, they will vote on the principle: "anyone but Trump," because in the eyes of the Democratic Party electorate he looks almost like an infernal candidate. And Trump himself, among Republicans, positions himself in fact as a candidate-messiah.
Regardless of who wins the election, the main task for the American establishment will be to "fix the consensus framework" between Republicans and Democrats, because now the split between the parties is quite deep. Against this background, both parties need to retain the mechanism of governing the country and preserve the dominance of the United States on the world stage. Despite the public antagonism, both parties remain close on certain issues of strategic security, there is a certain consensus on these issues, and it needs to be strengthened. This task will probably be addressed jointly.
The United States faces such a challenge as the growing dominance of China on the world stage. Both Democrats and Republicans will have to solve this challenge. This is not a question of ideology, this is a real challenge for the United States, an objective reality. In this regard, the administration of the new president, whoever he is, will face the same task as the Biden administration.
Don't expect significant changes in the relations between Belarus and the United States. Probably, little will change in Belarusian-American relations, no matter who the president is. Because any US president who takes office in 2025 will primarily solve the problem of the US well-being, i.e., the domestic political task, the task of preserving America's dominance on the world stage. We can talk not about US policy towards Belarus, but about US policy in Eastern Europe. This policy will change only to the extent that it will be beneficial to the Republicans, if they come to power. For example, to demonstrate the failure of the former government of the Democrats.
With reference to resolving the situation in Ukraine, this topic is mentioned in Trump's election program. But it results in a paradoxical situation. Trump himself is perceived as a factor of uncertainty: it is not entirely clear what to expect from him. But at the same time, he is associated with a request for the conflict stabilization, for the stabilization of US foreign policy in general. The Republicans' policy implies an increase in spending by Europeans on their own security, on security within the framework of NATO. Changes for Europe, changes in the course of the conflict in Ukraine in this regard are possible.