On April 10-11, 2025, Prime Minister of Pakistan Shahbaz Sharif paid an official return visit to Minsk with an impressive delegation of high-ranking officials and businessmen. The special atmosphere was given by the fact that the Pakistani leader arrived in our capital with his family members, thereby continuing the already established good tradition of holding meetings in such a format.
Of course, the informal family atmosphere of the national leaders meeting, which preceded the official part of the visit, set the tone and mood for business negotiations. This is evidenced by a solid package of signed documents on cooperation, its key directions and priorities are clearly articulated. They confirmed a common position on the further development and deepening of political dialogue, strengthening inter-parliamentary ties, and improving the legal framework.
At the same time, other equally important aspects of the opportunities and prospects of bilateral cooperation recorded in official documents remained behind the scenes of traditional Belarusian hospitality. We are talking about the associated risks as the flip side of the coin, which must be taken into account in order to objectively assess the situation in and around Pakistan in order to successfully and effectively implement the plans set. Well, let's look at the key ones.
There is a broad consensus in the expert community that Pakistan has been in a state of what political scientists call a systemic "polycrisis" in recent years. It is characterized by an unstable domestic political situation, a chronic deficit of payments balance, growing security problems, including domestic terrorism and separatism in a number of regions, shortages of basic energy resources, as well as weather and climatic disasters.
The internal political instability in Pakistan is mainly due to the de facto presence of two competing centers of power – an influential army and a civilian government, the formation and activities of which are moderated by the army elite. It is for this reason that almost all recent coalition cabinets resemble a patchwork quilt, are riddled with internal contradictions and maneuvering between these two camps. Hence their instability and frequent turnover. Governments are also under pressure from strong provincial administrations, especially those led by representatives of the opposition.
The ruling alliance is also challenged by the party of the imprisoned former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, which retains influence, including in the National Assembly, and broad popular support, especially among the youth (over 60 percent of Pakistan's population is under 30).
The historical dependence on external financial assistance (IMF), which settles mainly in the military sector, also contributes to the stability of Pakistan's political system, which is essentially balancing on the brink of default between the next tranches.
According to American sources, in 2002-2010, the United States provided Pakistan with more than $19 billion, primarily for the fight against terrorism, as well as an additional 7.5 billion in non-military aid. In 2013-2023, payments totaled more than $7 billion for projects in the fields of energy, healthcare, education, and infrastructure development. It should be noted that the Pakistani statistics show much smaller amounts of this aid.
Adding to the tension is the urgent need for structural economic reforms, the political and other costs of which the Pakistani authorities are not ready for, as well as the receipt of a new aid package (1.3 billion) from the IMF. In turn, Islamabad's steady dependence on Western (American) capital makes Islamabad's reliance on Washington a routine tactic of its foreign policy.
The United States obviously sees Pakistan as a buffer zone for pursuing its interests in South Asia, the key of which is containing China. For these purposes, socio-economic instability is being fueled, the influx of Afghan refugees into Pakistani soil is being stimulated, and the opposition and terrorist groups are being pumped up. This poses security threats not only to Pakistan itself, but also to Afghanistan and Iran, as well as indirectly to the Central Asian states.
According to experts, security remains Pakistan's Achilles' heel despite the powerful apparatuses of the army and intelligence agencies.
With the return of the Taliban to Kabul in 2021, Pakistan is facing a new wave of terrorism on its western borders, which overshadows bilateral cooperation with Afghanistan. The now regular clashes between Pakistani and Afghan security forces are another worrying sign. The situation is being fueled by regular meetings in Istanbul between representatives of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and political opponents of the Taliban from among former Afghan officials of the republican administration. Discussions include, among other issues, the potential reopening of the political offices of these groups in Islamabad and increased cooperation in the fight against the Pakistani Taliban.
Tensions also remain in relations with neighboring India, which is reinforced by the emerging rapprochement between Pakistan and the new authorities of Bangladesh. New Delhi fears that this reset will pave the way for a military alliance between the former West and East Pakistan. In turn, the deterioration of relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan provides India with an opportunity to strengthen its ties with Kabul.
In order to overcome the accumulated burden of internal and external problems, Pakistan, in addition to maneuvering between the United States and China, is trying to diversify its foreign policy.
To this end, Islamabad is seeking closer ties with France in the defense sector. Traditionally strong contacts with London are being strengthened, where the head of the Pakistani army, General Asim Munir, was recently received with the highest honors. The British also propose to create joint ventures in the defense industry.
Pakistan is negotiating with Uzbekistan to establish a joint transport and logistics company with the possibility of direct access to the port of Karachi as a strategic Central Asian logistics hub within the framework of the Trans-Afghan project (transit potential – 20 million tons of cargo per year). In addition, an agreement was reached to increase the mutual trade turnover from the current $400 million to two billion dollars in the near future.
By the way, documents have recently been signed on the beginning of the practical implementation of the Trans-Afghan Railway project (the distance will be 573 km). This new transport corridor is to link the European Union, Russia, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and further South-East Asian states. The first discussions of the project with the participation of railway officials from Pakistan and Afghanistan will take place as part of the "Russia-Islamic World: KazanForum" in mid-May this year.
Negotiations are underway between Islamabad and Baku on Azerbaijani investments in the Pakistani economy, which could reach two billion dollars.
Denmark has announced a $2 billion investment in Pakistan's port sector to modernize the country's maritime infrastructure in order to improve port operations and increase competitiveness in global trade.
In order to reduce political and financial dependence on the IMF, Pakistan is weighing the possibility of joining the activities of the New BRICS Development Bank. The government also announced plans to borrow 6.75 trillion rupees from commercial banks in March–May to cover budget deficits and repay maturing debts.
Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif invited American companies to exploit Pakistan's mineral resources, highlighting the untapped potential and strategic value of the mining sector, which is positioned as the country's top investment priority. At the same time, Pakistan is negotiating with the United States on the issue of the recently introduced 29% tariff on Pakistani goods exported to the United States.
Pakistan and Turkey have announced cooperation in the field of oil and gas exploration. An agreement has been signed on joint participation in large oilfield development (40 sites in total) on the Pakistani shelf in the Indian Ocean. According to media reports, this discovery has made the country one of the world leaders in energy reserves.
According to some reports, the discovered deposit is considered the fourth largest in the world and is second only to Venezuelan, Saudi and Canadian deposits. However, the largest Western companies have not expressed interest in its development.
Thus, the complex nonlinear equation of Pakistan, where the variables are domestic political instability, fundamental macroeconomic problems (as derivatives of systemic dependence on external finance and geopolitics), as well as growing security risks, will objectively affect Minsk's long-term plans to achieve the desired volumes and dynamics of cooperation with Islamabad.